How to view today's rebound? Some positive market directions recently

The index showed a reversal today compared to yesterday’s trend. Yesterday opened high and declined, while today tested the bottom and rebounded. By the close, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.32%, the Shenzhen Component increased 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.02%. [Taoguba]
Both markets had more advancing stocks than declining ones, with over 3,500 stocks rising; total daily turnover was 2.03 trillion yuan, down 173.6 billion yuan from the previous day, with net outflows of 4.837 billion yuan from domestic main funds. The median of gains and losses was 0.8%.
In the 13 trading days this month, the market had 8 bearish and 5 bullish days. Overall, the Shanghai Index has fallen 2.4%. However, the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices continue to perform strongly. The Shenzhen Index’s pattern remains intact, and today, after rising, the ChiNext Index also moved above all moving averages. Based on the trend, it still suggests focusing more on stocks in the Shenzhen and ChiNext markets.
However, today’s rebound was characterized by significantly reduced volume, indicating a short-term downtrend persists. Coupled with external uncertainties like the Iran situation, the outlook remains cautious. Today’s rebound should be viewed as a temporary correction.
In the short term, the index needs to stabilize above the 60-day moving average, followed by a strong volume bullish candle to break through multiple resistance lines and confirm the trend. Until then, it’s prudent to prepare for both sides—mainly observing and reducing unnecessary trades. For trading, maintaining light positions is advisable, especially for those with larger losses this month. Staying on the sidelines is the safest approach.
Yesterday’s broad decline repeatedly reminded us that in uncertain conditions with low win rates, frequent trading and chasing highs or selling lows are highly risky. When stocks held are falling, chasing strong stocks that then decline further can lead to significant losses.
Today, the market continued to rebound, with three stocks in the portfolio rising nearly 5%.
The core focus remains on the GTC conference led by Jensen Huang.
Today, Alibaba and Baidu joined tech giants like Google and Tencent in raising prices to accelerate monetization of AI services.
Alibaba Cloud announced that starting April 18, due to exploding global AI demand and rising supply chain costs, prices for AI computing power and storage products will increase, with a maximum rise of 34%. This includes a 5%-34% increase in computing cards like the PingTouGe ZhenWu 810E, and a 30% increase in file storage products (CPFS, Intelligent Computing Edition).
Baidu Smart Cloud will also raise prices from April 18, with AI computing power products increasing by about 5%-30%, and parallel file storage up approximately 30%. The reasons are similar to Alibaba Cloud’s—rising demand for computing power and significant increases in core hardware and infrastructure costs.
Last week, Tencent announced that the price of its “Hun Yuan” foundational model on its AI platform increased over four times; it also started charging for third-party models hosted on its cloud, such as Zhipu AI and Moonshade, ending free trials. Additionally, Google recently announced plans to raise related service prices.
Recently, tokens have been the most discussed topic—driven by AI applications and token logic. The full potential has yet to be realized; we are only at the beginning.
Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming internally stated that AI Agents are highly dependent on tokens, and a “demand explosion” is imminent.
Jensen Huang pointed out that the correlation between tokens and AI enterprise revenue is becoming clearer—more computing power means more tokens generated, which boosts income and makes AI smarter.
He even suggested that in future Silicon Valley job markets, tokens might become part of engineers’ annual compensation packages, such as “employment with token quotas,” becoming a new recruitment topic.
At GTC, Huang predicted that the Blackwell and Rubin platforms will have procurement orders totaling $500 billion before 2026. He also set a new target for next year, expecting this figure to double to over $1 trillion.
To support this trillion-dollar growth, Huang introduced Nvidia’s new narrative—shifting from data centers to token factories. He believes that in the future, every AI company and cloud service provider should focus on token factory efficiency as a core metric.
Tokens will also become a new “commodity,” with re-pricing based on throughput and interaction speed. At GTC, Nvidia launched Vera Rubin, consisting of 7 new chips, 5 rack systems, and 1 supercomputer.
72 GPUs interconnected via NVLink will accelerate prefill calculations and ensure fast response times during token generation (KV Cache). The new Vera CPU acts as a “scheduler,” handling control tasks to free up GPUs. A storage network optimized for AI data flow was rebuilt, featuring the CPO Spectrum-X switch, which integrates optical engines and switch chips—marking the world’s first optical encapsulated Ethernet switch, replacing traditional pluggable modules.
Vera Rubin is expected to ship in the second half of 2026. Its advantages include inference speeds five times faster than the previous Blackwell Ultra and a tenfold reduction in token costs, using only a quarter of the GPUs required by MoE models.
Besides Vera Rubin, Nvidia also previewed the next-generation GPU architecture, Vera Rubin Ultra (launching in 2028), and Feynman architecture. Overall, future Nvidia platforms will revolve around 3D stacking, LPU integration, heterogeneous storage, CPO (co-packaged optics), and copper interconnects.
This also benefits domestic AI computing directions and high-growth sectors in Q1, including storage, PCB, AI computing power, device materials, and packaging/testing.
Additionally, energy storage and computing-electrical synergy are part of future plans for green data centers, where energy storage may become the main power source. The AI industry is shifting toward infrastructure that combines computing and power, with networked computing and energy security becoming key investment focuses.
Next-generation copper-clad laminate (CCL) materials like M10 will drive a new upgrade cycle for AI server PCB materials.
Oil prices are also rising. Historically, sharp increases in oil prices in 1979, 2004, 2010, and 2022 significantly impacted inflation, especially affecting our PPI and US CPI. The positive effects mainly benefit exports and commodities.
Other important updates include:

1. A free model called Hunter Alpha appeared on the AI gateway platform OpenRouter on March 11, with no developer info listed, later called a “stealth model.” During testing, Hunter Alpha claimed to be a “Chinese AI model mainly trained in Chinese,” with training data up to May last year, consistent with DeepSeek’s own chatbot knowledge cutoff. This sparked speculation that Chinese AI startups like DeepSeek might be quietly testing next-gen systems in preparation for official release.
   However, when asked about the developer, Hunter Alpha refused to disclose details. Its profile describes it as a model with 1 trillion parameters and a context window up to 1 million tokens, aligning with Chinese media expectations for DeepSeek’s next V4 model, possibly launching as early as April. Last week, China’s weekly AI model call volume reached 4.69 trillion tokens, up 11.83% from the previous week; US weekly call volume was 3.294 trillion tokens, down 9.33%. China’s AI model call volume has surpassed the US for two consecutive weeks.
2. Sources report that Chinese authorities have approved several Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s H200 AI chips. Huang Huang said on March 17 at a press conference in San Jose, California, that Nvidia has obtained sales licenses for H200 to “many Chinese customers” and is “restarting production.” He noted that the situation has improved significantly compared to a few weeks ago, with supply chains “being reactivated.”
3. The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new batch of 13 major foreign investment projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion. These projects mainly focus on manufacturing, including electronics, chemicals, automobiles, and electrical machinery, aiming to accelerate industrial clustering. The NDRC also increased support for the service sector, including logistics projects and R&D centers in biomedicine, promoting deep integration of modern services and advanced manufacturing. So far, these major foreign investment projects have accumulated a total investment of $108 billion.
4. The Premier stated that this year’s key tasks include deepening the construction of a unified national market and accelerating the development of next-generation intelligent manufacturing.
5. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will keep contract gas prices basically unchanged this year to mitigate the impact of Middle East conflicts on global energy prices and industrial users. CNPC will continue using last year’s price ceiling, supporting the long-term development of China’s natural gas industry. Due to weak demand last year, China’s natural gas inventories remain high, giving the country resilience against supply disruptions caused by current conflicts. Although Qatar’s LNG supply has been suspended due to the conflict, it accounts for only about 6% of China’s consumption.
6. U.S. President Trump will delay his visit to China. The Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that China and the U.S. will continue to communicate on this matter. Originally scheduled for March 31 to April 2, Trump’s visit aims to revitalize China-U.S. relations and extend the trade truce. On Monday, Trump told the media at the White House that the trip would be postponed by about a month to focus on Middle East conflicts. He did not specify an exact date but said it would be “in about five or six weeks.”
7. Due to ongoing tensions between China and Japan with no signs of easing, Chinese tourists visiting Japan in February dropped 45.2% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline. Data from the National Tourism Administration shows that in February, Chinese mainland visitors to Japan totaled 396,400.
8. South Korea dispatched a cross-departmental policy research team to China to learn from advanced autonomous driving technologies and policies. This is the first time South Korea has sent a multi-agency team to a leading tech country to strengthen its autonomous vehicle industry.
9. Tonight’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, the second-to-last under Chair Powell, amid high uncertainty from Middle East conflicts, has attracted market attention. The latest interest rate futures pricing indicates almost zero chance of a rate cut at this meeting—the federal funds rate target is expected to remain at 3.5%-3.75%, with no cuts in the near term.
10. The world’s first smart elderly care robot station officially launched in Beijing Yizhuang. The station covers about 1,100 square meters. The dining area features full-process automation. The elderly care zone offers massage and moxibustion robots, exoskeletons for rehabilitation, and robots for playing chess and making tea, making the experience engaging. The aging-friendly model rooms are equipped with smart wheelchairs, companion robots, and even a robot dog obstacle course, providing immersive tech experiences for seniors.
11. Due to tense geopolitical tensions, Hong Kong, with no foreign exchange controls, linked exchange rate to HKD, common law system, and backing from mainland China, has recently become a safe haven for Middle Eastern capital. Many financial observers note that regional instability in the Middle East prompts investors to reassess asset allocations, driving capital into neutral Asian financial hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore. Hong Kong may benefit from some Middle Eastern capital and talent outflows, boosting its wealth management and bond markets.
    On the international stage, crises and opportunities coexist. Short-term shocks from geopolitical conflicts and chaos disrupt established development rhythms, but these upheavals also create new possibilities, offering opportunities to break through bottlenecks and rebuild advantages.