"Super Strong El Niño Will Cause Hottest Year" Tops Trending Search - Fact or Fiction? Expert Response →

Recently, topics such as “The next two years may become the hottest years in history” and “The Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon” have trended on the internet, attracting widespread public attention. Several media outlets report that multiple global research institutions predict a strong El Niño may occur later this year, disrupting the global climate. This could not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, potentially pushing summer temperatures this year and next to record highs. In response to these societal concerns, reporters interviewed experts from the China Meteorological Administration for explanations.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate variability phenomenon characterized by coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillations in the tropical Pacific with a cycle of 3 to 7 years. It is generally represented by the duration and intensity of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (deviations from the climate average) in a fixed region of the central-eastern tropical Pacific.

• If the 3-month moving average SST anomaly remains above 0.5°C for five months, it indicates a warm phase, called El Niño.
• If it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it indicates a cold phase, called La Niña.
• If the anomaly fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

Image source: National Climate Center

Potential Entry into El Niño State in Late Spring

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from multiple climate models domestically and internationally, the China Meteorological Administration’s National Climate Center indicates that La Niña is nearing its end, and a neutral state is expected to follow. The SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is expected to continue rising, and an El Niño may develop in late spring this year.

Climate expert Liu Yunyun explained that, historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with the onset of El Niño in the same year. Different international models predict varying timings for the development of El Niño, with the earliest possible in April and the latest in late summer or early autumn. The predictions differ significantly among models, for example:

• The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April;
• Australia forecasts May;
• Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June;
• U.S. experts estimate between July and September.

Overall, the likelihood of an El Niño developing in the equatorial central Pacific in the second half of this year is relatively high, but the exact timing and overall strength remain uncertain. Currently, international climate models show considerable divergence, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Climate expert Chen Lijuan pointed out that El Niño events are often associated with global average temperature increases. However, the magnitude of warming and extreme weather manifestations depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of El Niño, requiring further monitoring and analysis. It is too early to determine whether an extremely strong El Niño will lead to the hottest year on record.

Weather and climate change are closely related to people’s lives and economic development. As a result, information about weather and climate tends to attract high public attention. Amid frequent extreme weather events, there is a vast amount of related information online. Currently, discussions on topics like “hottest year” and “extreme weather” are lively on social media, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context.

Chen Lijuan advises the public to view forecast information rationally. Climate predictions carry uncertainties, especially regarding the specific timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño, which require ongoing monitoring and prediction. The public should pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative sources rather than isolated extreme statements. It is recommended to follow official channels such as the National Climate Center, the China Meteorological Administration’s website and official social media platforms, and regularly check authoritative reports like ENSO monitoring bulletins. International organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also publish periodic global climate assessments, which can serve as references.

Finally, regardless of whether El Niño occurs, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather has become a new normal of global climate change. It is essential to respond scientifically. The public should stay alert to weather warnings and prepare accordingly. Agricultural producers should plan farming activities reasonably, and city managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water, and transportation.

(Report by Wu Wei, CCTV)

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