Once Hoped to Become Director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics! Trump Ally "Tells It Straight": U.S. Economy Can't Handle $100 Oil Price

A conservative economist who was once nominated by Trump to lead the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has publicly warned that the U.S. economy is too fragile to withstand the impact of oil prices rising to $100 per barrel, and that the Iran war is turning this risk into reality.

On Thursday, EJ Antoni, chief economist at the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, told the Financial Times, “I don’t think this economy can handle oil prices at $100 a barrel. It just can’t.” He added, “The economy is weaker than we thought, and inflation is more severe than we thought.”

This statement came just before the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting. Antoni also warned that, while falling energy prices in 2025 previously helped suppress overall prices, the current rise in energy prices will put upward pressure on prices across the economy.

Antoni’s comments coincide with ongoing weak economic data and sharp increases in energy prices, fueling concerns within the Republican Party about midterm election prospects. Brent crude oil surged 5% in a single day on Wednesday, approaching $110 per barrel at one point. U.S. retail gasoline prices jumped from $2.92 per gallon a month ago to $3.84, and diesel prices exceeded $5, putting heavy pressure on consumers and businesses.

Economic fundamentals: Disappointing data continue

Antoni’s warnings are not unfounded; a series of economic indicators have already signaled weakness before the outbreak of war.

Last week, data showed that U.S. Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised sharply downward from 1.4% to 0.7%. Wednesday’s data revealed that wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than expected in February, even before military action against Iran began. Meanwhile, last month, U.S. employment decreased by 92,000 jobs, nearly erasing all the gains from January.

Antoni attributes part of the employment weakness to federal layoffs last year and emphasizes that there is a structural issue of “weak job growth” in the current economy.

Political pressure: Republican concerns over midterm elections

The rapid rise in energy prices is turning into tangible political risks. According to the Financial Times, within the Republican Party, concerns are growing that high oil prices could hurt midterm election prospects.

Meanwhile, divisions over the Iran war are beginning to surface. The day before Antoni made his remarks, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned in protest, marking the first notable public departure within the Trump administration since the conflict began.

Antoni’s public statements reflect genuine worries among Trump allies about the current economic trajectory—under the triple pressures of war, inflation, and sluggish growth, these concerns are becoming increasingly hard to conceal.

Nomination controversy: From BLS director candidate to withdrawal

Antoni’s relationship with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been tumultuous.

In August last year, after firing the previous BLS director, Trump nominated Antoni to lead this key statistical agency—Trump had previously accused the former director of manipulating employment reports. However, just a month later, Trump suddenly withdrew Antoni’s nomination and instead nominated government economist Brett Matsumoto, whose appointment still awaits Senate approval.

When asked about how he was informed of his withdrawal, Antoni declined to reveal details, only saying he preferred to keep those conversations private.

Despite being out of the running, Antoni’s criticism of the BLS has not softened. He compared the agency to a “random number generator” and called for a “thorough top-down review” of its entire data collection, processing, and release procedures, citing previous data leaks—such as in January, when Trump publicly released December employment data hours before the official release.