Why Is the SPY ETF Down Today, 3/18/2026?

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY -1.40% ▼ fell 1.37% today, March 18, due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, hotter-than-expected inflation data, and intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

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Importantly, SPY closely tracks the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which was down 1.36% in the regular trading session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) tanked 1.43%.

Key Catalysts That Can Move SPY ETF

Nvidia’s NVDA -0.84% ▼ ongoing GTC conference, featuring new AI announcements, remains a major driver for tech sector sentiment. Also, key earnings reports from FedEx FDX -1.39% ▼ , DocuSign DOCU +2.86% ▲ , and Alibaba BABA -1.57% ▼ are expected to influence market sentiment ahead.

Fund Flows and Sentiment

SPY’s five-day net inflows totaled $7 billion, showing that investors put capital into the ETF over the past five trading days. Meanwhile, its three-month average trading volume is 82.08 million shares.

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It must be noted that the retail sentiment for the SPY ETF is positive, and hedge fund managers have increased their holdings of the ETF in the last quarter.

SPY’s Price Forecast

According to TipRanks’ unique ETF analyst consensus, which is based on a weighted average of analyst ratings on its holdings, SPY has a Moderate Buy rating. The Street’s average price target of $828.19 for the SPY ETF implies an upside potential of 25.18%.

Currently, SPY’s five holdings with the highest upside potential are:

• Loews L -2.23% ▼

• Fair Isaac FICO +0.31% ▲

• Ares Management ARES +0.28% ▲

• KKR KKR +1.87% ▲

• ServiceNow NOW -2.58% ▼

Meanwhile, its five holdings with the greatest downside potential are:

• Moderna MRNA -2.84% ▼

• APA Corp. APA +2.08% ▲

• CF Industries CF +2.79% ▲

• Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM -1.73% ▼

• Valero Energy VLO +1.06% ▲

Revealingly, SPY ETF’s Smart Score is seven, implying that this ETF is likely to perform in line with the broader market over the long term.

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