The "expectation gap" of a strong start in the economy

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-19T01:07:31+00:00

China's economic data for January-February showed improvement, with retail sales increasing 2.8% year-over-year, fixed asset investment rising 1.8% year-over-year, and industrial added value growing 6.3% year-over-year. Consumer spending warmed due to the Spring Festival holiday and policy effects, while real estate development investment and newly constructed commodity housing sales area declined.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-19 01:07:31

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January–February, retail sales grew by 2.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 2.4% and a previous value of 0.9%; fixed asset investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year, versus an expected decline of 2.7% and a previous decline of 3.8%; real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, compared to an expected decline of 20% and a previous decline of 17.2%; newly built commercial housing sales area declined by 13.5% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 8.7%; industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year, versus an expected 5.2% and a previous 5.2%.

Consumption: The longer Spring Festival holiday, continued government subsidy policies, and restored consumer confidence jointly contributed to improvements in both goods and services consumption. In January–February, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, rebounding 1.9 percentage points from December 2025. The main driver was retail sales of goods above designated size, which grew by 4.5 percentage points to 2.5% year-on-year.

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