002426, Sealed Orders Once Exceeded 3.85 Million Hands! Global Aluminum Smelting Giant Announces Major News, Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Faces Shortage (Stock Included)

Data is a Treasure

Data is a Treasure

Investing with Less Worry

Institutions believe that in the long term, the aluminum industry will have limited long-term supply growth, while demand still has growth points, and the industry may remain highly prosperous.

Significant Adjustment in Non-Ferrous Sector Themes

On the morning of March 16, the A-share major index declined, with the index dropping over 1% at one point during trading. Many non-ferrous related themes fell sharply, with cobalt metals, rare resources, gold concepts, nickel metals, and rare earth permanent magnets among the top decliners. Leading cobalt companies Huayou Cobalt and Zijin Mining both fell more than 4%.

Themes related to mass consumption performed counter to the trend, with early gains in water products, grain concepts, white wine, and pork. Water product concept stocks such as Dongfang Marine hit the daily limit, and Zhongshui Fishery briefly touched the limit during trading. Grain concept stocks like Nongfa Seed Industry hit the limit, with Dunhuang Seed Industry, Kangnong Seed Industry, and Qiule Seed Industry rising over 6%.

Around 10:52, Victory Precision (002426) suddenly surged and hit the daily limit within two minutes, with the order book exceeding 3.85 million shares at the limit. The company’s main business is consumer electronics and auto parts. Previously, the company released a earnings forecast indicating a net loss of 365 million to 730 million yuan by 2025.

By 11:30 a.m., other stocks that also hit the daily limit against the trend included Xiwang Food, China Power LiaoNeng, Standard Shares, Vico Technologies, ShunNa Shares, and Dingxin Communications (rights protection).

Bahrain Aluminum Announces Halt of 3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production Lines

On March 15, Bahrain Aluminum, a leading global aluminum smelting company, announced on its official website that it has initiated controlled and safe shutdown procedures for Lines 1, 2, and 3 of electrolytic aluminum production. These three lines have a total capacity of 308,400 tons, accounting for 19% of the company’s annual total capacity of 1.623 million tons.

This targeted and specific shutdown aims to optimize the use of existing raw material inventories amid ongoing transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, prioritizing the stable operation of Lines 4, 5, and 6. During the controlled shutdown, the company will conduct equipment maintenance and repairs on Lines 1, 2, and 3.

CITIC Securities states that the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz make it increasingly difficult to ensure the normal production of nearly 7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East, as there is a supply gap of about 9 million tons of alumina in the region. Despite high oil prices threatening economic growth and potential metal consumption, the supply disruptions caused by continued blockade and transportation interruptions could lead to a significant short-term loss of supply, even if raw materials recover later. This shortfall is likely to push electrolytic aluminum prices above 25,000 yuan per ton, benefiting the aluminum sector.

Guohai Securities believes that in the short term, geopolitical factors remain the main market theme, with strong supply-side disruptions, especially affecting overseas markets more than domestic. Overseas aluminum prices are stronger than domestic. Post-holiday demand is gradually recovering, shifting into peak season, but inventory turning points are still awaited. Regarding alumina, domestic capacity has generally declined, and rising oil prices have increased freight costs, pushing up alumina prices. Long-term, the aluminum industry has limited long-term supply growth, while demand still has growth points, and the industry may remain highly prosperous.

Overall Performance of Aluminum Industry Chain Stocks

There are 31 aluminum industry chain stocks in the A-share market. As of the close on March 13, their total market value was 1.24 trillion yuan. According to Securities Times Data Treasure, since the beginning of the year, these stocks have averaged a 13.58% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by over 10 percentage points. Six stocks—Haixing Shares, Dingsheng New Materials, Nanshan Aluminum, Yiqiu Resources, Shenhuo Shares, and Hongqiao Holdings—each gained over 30%.

Haixing Shares rose by 71.62%, ranking first, and hit a record high during trading on March 11. The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of producing low, medium, and high-voltage electrode foils, and is a leading enterprise in the industry. Electrode foil is a core raw material for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, used in aerospace and other fields. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 147 million yuan, up 41.41% year-over-year.

From performance data, based on the 2025 annual report, performance quick report, and forecasted lower limit of net profit (or the announced value if no lower limit), nine aluminum industry chain stocks are expected to see year-over-year profit growth (including turning losses into profits). Notably, Ningbo Fubang, Yiqiu Resources, Shunbo Alloys, Zhongfu Industrial, and Jiaozuo Wanfang have high growth rates.

Ningbo Fubang expects a net profit of 50 to 70 million yuan in 2025, a 31 to 43.79 times increase. Driven by rising silver prices, the company’s core electrical contact products business saw rapid revenue and profit growth. Additionally, the company gained significant investment income from transferring a 2.5% stake in Ningbo Zhonghua Paper.

Yiqiu Resources expects a net profit of 134 to 199 million yuan in 2025, a 620% to 970% increase. During the reporting period, the continued recovery of downstream demand led to higher market prices for aluminum alloy ingots. Meanwhile, exchange rate fluctuations narrowed significantly, reducing the impact on gross profit.

Shunbo Alloys expects a net profit of 210 to 270 million yuan in 2025, a 222.96% to 315.23% increase. During the period, demand from downstream industries and overall market prices for non-ferrous metals strengthened, leading to increased sales volume and prices for the company’s main products. The company also deepened efficiency reforms, resulting in cost reductions.

Disclaimer: All information from Data Treasure does not constitute investment advice. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously.

Editor: Zhou Sha