Oil Crisis | BlackRock CEO: If Oil Prices Rise to $150, It Will Trigger Global Economic Recession

The Iran war has nearly closed the key shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices remain high. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that if oil prices reach $150 per barrel, it could trigger a global recession.

Reports indicate that the U.S. has proposed a 15-point plan to Iran to end the Middle East conflict, increasing the likelihood of a ceasefire and potentially easing supply disruptions in the region. Brent crude futures fell by 4% to $100.32 per barrel, after dropping to $97.57 earlier. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also declined by 3.4%, to $89.24 per barrel, after falling to $86.72.

Fink believes it is too early to determine the final scale and outcome of the conflict, but he sees two extreme scenarios. One is that if the conflict is resolved and Iran becomes an internationally acceptable country again, oil prices could fall below pre-war levels. However, if not, oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for years, approaching $150, which would have profound economic impacts and could lead to a severe recession.

Analysts point out that Middle East tensions will continue to be the dominant factor influencing oil prices, likely causing recent wide fluctuations. Some also suggest that despite signs of easing conflict, market outlook remains tight. Even if Strait of Hormuz shipping resumes, it is uncertain whether all shut-in production can be restored until a more lasting ceasefire is confirmed.