Overseas Chinese Banking Corporation expects the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts until the third quarter.

The Middle East conflict has led to tight energy supplies. Hong Kong economist Jiang Jing from OCBC Bank stated that if international oil prices remain high, market inflation expectations will rise, and there is concern that central banks in the US and other regions may not cut interest rates and could even raise them. This would negatively impact Hong Kong’s economy, initially putting pressure on the capital markets, which has already been reflected. Going forward, consumer sentiment could be affected, and international trade may also be impacted. The bank currently forecasts Hong Kong’s GDP growth at 2.6% this year; if the above scenarios occur, the forecast will be revised down to 2.2%.

Jiang Jing said that she expects the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once this year, likely delaying until the third quarter. She predicts that oil prices will be around $100 in the first half of the year, but with coordinated support from various countries and organizations, oil prices are expected to fall back to $70 in the second half.

Gold Price Forecast Lowered to $5,350

Recently, gold prices have declined. Jiang Jing pointed out that this is mainly because investors and central banks are selling gold at high levels to raise liquidity. Additionally, some regions are net oil importers, and high oil prices have a significant impact on the economy and currency. Therefore, some central banks are also selling gold to support their exchange rates. The original forecast for gold prices was $5,600 this year; considering the recent retracement, the latest forecast has been lowered to $5,350.