Trading Floor Update | Market Remains Sensitive to Middle East Conflict News, Stock Market Performance Volatile in Response

International oil prices regained their upward momentum yesterday, and concerns about the private credit market reignited in the market. U.S. stocks were under pressure again on Tuesday. The Dow opened down 108 points, and the decline widened to as much as 438 points, hitting a low of 45,769; the S&P 500 once fell 0.85%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.07% at one point. NYMEX crude oil surged 5.9% to $93.36 per barrel, causing the three major U.S. stock indices to retreat at the close. At the close, the Dow reversed and fell 84 points or 0.18%, to 46,124; the S&P 500 declined 24 points or 0.37%, to 6,556; the Nasdaq dropped 184 points or 0.84%, to 21,761.

However, after the market closed, according to Israel Channel 12, Vitkov and Kushner are working on a mechanism to halt conflicts with Iran; the framework is similar to previous understandings related to Gaza and Lebanon issues. The plan they are developing is to announce a one-month ceasefire, during which negotiations on the 15-point plan will take place. Following this news, international oil prices softened this morning during Asia-Pacific hours, with NYMEX crude falling back below $90, and U.S. stock futures rebounded. However, news about Middle East conflicts continues to circulate widely, and global stock markets fluctuate with related news. It is expected that the market will remain volatile in the coming days.

Regarding U.S. stocks, Man has not yet made any purchases. Currently, the market situation allows the portfolio to stay relatively stable; it’s best to hold steady, ideally maintaining around 50% cash. Over the past few days, I’ve been watching TSM. As the world’s largest foundry chip supplier, TSM at around 300-350 becomes quite attractive. Tonight, I’ll see how the U.S. market performs, possibly buying below 350, or around 300-320, with 270-280 as a stop-loss. No changes have been made to other holdings. ONDS continues to trade within a range, buying around 9.5, with 8.8-9 as a stop-loss, aiming for a sell at 11.5-12.

As for tonight, the key support/resistance levels for NQ are 24,300 and 24,200/24,100/24,000 respectively, with resistance at 24,400/24,500/24,600. The 10-day moving average is estimated to be around 24,550, which may act as resistance. Staying above 24,600 would allow a test of the 20-day moving average at about 24,750-24,800, where resistance could be significant. On the downside, avoid falling below 23,600 to maintain a rebound above the psychological level of 24,000. Staying above this level is crucial for a sustained rebound.

The market remains highly sensitive to Middle East conflict news. This morning, Asia-Pacific stocks rebounded, U.S. stock futures also moved higher, and Hong Kong stocks opened strongly. The Hang Seng Index opened up 216 points, rising as much as 326 points to 25,390, but faced resistance at the 10-day moving average, with the half-day gain nearly wiped out, leaving only a 9-point increase, closing at 25,072. The 250-day moving average has yet to stabilize. However, Man estimates that today’s close could return to the 250-day moving average, fully filling the Monday gap, and stabilize around 25,100, with potential to challenge the 20-day moving average at about 25,550-25,600.

However, the upward rebound faces significant resistance. In the short term, the market is likely to remain volatile due to Middle East conflict news. The first resistance level is around 25,350-25,400, near the 10-day moving average, followed by 25,550 near the 20-day moving average. Support levels are at 24,800 and 24,700, corresponding to the top of Monday’s decline gap. Holding above 24,700 suggests continued rebound, while key support is at 24,500-25,550. A break below 24,500 could test the 24,000 level again. However, with signs of easing in Middle East tensions, Man leans toward the possibility that Hong Kong stocks may have found a short-term bottom by Monday, unless the conflict worsens rapidly, in which case the rebound could be disrupted.

Maidwen

(Xu Diyi, licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission)