Bitcoin Bull Trap Warning in Advance, Short Logic Continues to Realize Profits | Special Analysis

Last week’s weekly report clearly indicated that the market was in a trap of induced bullishness, advising investors not to blindly chase rallies or increase positions, and maintaining the bearish trend outlook. This week’s market movement provided clear validation—Bitcoin failed to break through the resistance zone effectively, followed by a noticeable decline, and the bearish logic continues to hold.

Below, we present this week’s market forecast, operational strategy suggestions, and a review of last week’s trades to help readers grasp the market direction and make precise decisions in a complex environment.

Core Summary of the Weekly Trading Report:

• HYPE Short-term Trading Results: Last week completed one short-term long position (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 4.41% profit. (See detailed explanation in Part Two)

• BTC Short-term Trading Results: Last week completed one short-term short position (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 5.37% profit. (See detailed explanation in Part Four)

• HYPE Forecast and Strategy for This Week: See Parts One and Two.

• BTC Market Trend Forecast and Medium/Short-term Strategies: See Parts Three and Four.

• Validation of Core Viewpoints: Last week, Bitcoin remained in a bearish trend pattern, fully in line with the forecast, and the induced bullish warning was effectively validated.

Part One: HYPE Forecast and Operational Strategy

1. Core Viewpoints for This Week:

Based on the current structure, we judge that the recent hourly downtrend initiated around the high point on March 19 (near endpoint 27) is likely to conclude soon. The subsequent movement depends on whether price can effectively break free from the central zone C to confirm the end of the correction. If a clear breakout occurs, the trend continuation signal will become more evident. We expect wide-range oscillations this week, so flexible responses are recommended.

2. HYPE Upside Risk Warning:

It’s important to note that while HYPE’s movement has some independence, it still cannot be completely detached from the overall Bitcoin environment. If Bitcoin experiences a significant correction later, it may drag down HYPE’s rebound momentum. Investors should stay alert and prepare risk management plans.

3. Operational Strategies for This Week:

Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points based on support and resistance levels, and look for “spread” trading opportunities (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles). Keep positions light and flexible, strictly adhere to stop-loss rules.

Part Two: HYPE Last Week’s Structural Analysis and Short-term Trading Review

1. Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities Tracking

Since late February, we have continuously monitored and analyzed HYPE, with each judgment validated by market movements. A brief review:

• Feb 23 Weekly Review: First suggested HYPE might enter an investment window, indicating the market was in wave II correction, with expectations of initiating wave III main rally.

• Mar 3 Weekly Review: Identified the Feb 24 low at $25.60 as a potential wave III start point, confirming a possible trend reversal.

• Mar 9 Weekly Review: Noted that the price had effectively broken through multiple moving average resistances on the daily chart, entering a consolidation phase, with expectation of rapid rise after completion.

• Mar 16 Weekly Review: Indicated the market was in wave III, building an upward central zone (Central Zone B). Predicted that after completion, wide-range oscillation was likely.

2. HYPE Daily Chart Structure Overview (Based on post-Jan 21 movements):

The current daily trend of HYPE clearly shows a three-wave advance pattern, with features as follows:

• Wave I (Impulse): From Jan 21 low of $20.46 to Feb 3 high of $38.41, lasting 14 days, with a maximum increase of 87.73%, driven strongly.

• Wave II (Correction): From Feb 3 high of $38.41 to Feb 24 low of $25.60, lasting 20 days, with a maximum decline of 33.35%, within normal retracement range.

• Wave III (Main Uptrend): From Feb 24 low of $25.60 to present, 27 days in, with a maximum rise of 71.02%, trend still ongoing with a well-structured pattern.

3. HYPE Hourly Sub-structure (Based on movements after Mar 16):

HYPE_60min Chart

Figure 1

• Hourly trend review: As shown, during the latter half of March 9 to 15, the price was building an upward central zone (Zone B), nearing completion, consistent with our previous forecast.

• Internal structure division (Mar 16–Mar 22):

a. From endpoint 24, the previously built upward central zone (Zone B) is confirmed complete. The subsequent complex structure comprises 8 segments: 24-25, 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32. As of analysis, the 31-32 segment is ongoing, with clear layering.

b. Upward structure: segments 24-25, 25-26, 26-27.

c. Correction structure: segments 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32, showing oscillatory convergence.

d. Overlapping segments 28-29, 29-30, 30-31 form a downward central zone (Zone C), the core of this correction.

4. HYPE Short-term Trading Review (1x leverage): (Mar 16–Mar 22)

Last week, based on our proprietary spread trading and momentum quantification models, combined with the upward structure forecast, we executed a short-term long position, achieving a profit of 4.41%, with strict adherence to the plan.

• HYPE Short-term Trade Summary (1x leverage):

• Entry decision: Based on the completion of upward Zone B and trend continuation forecast. The trigger was a confirmed breakout above the upper resistance of approximately $38.54, with bullish signals from both spread and momentum models, significantly increasing entry reliability. We entered at $38.73 with 30% position.

• Exit decision: When the spread model signaled a top and a “strong top pattern” in candlestick analysis, forming a technical resonance, we closed at around $40.44, locking in profit.

• Summary: This operation yielded about 4.41% profit, with entry and exit points supported by model signals, demonstrating high execution quality.

Figure 2

Part Three: BTC Forecast and Operational Strategy (Mar 23–Mar 29)

1. Bitcoin Trend Structure Analysis (Post Feb 6 low):

Using the 4-hour cycle:

• Maintain the previous core judgment: Bitcoin’s rally from the Feb 6 low (~$60,000) is a large wave C correction, specifically an oversold rebound within wave C-2, with limited upside potential, followed by wave C-3 decline.

• Current structure: The short-term upward pattern formed since Feb 24 has been broken; bulls’ defense at key levels weakened. If support cannot be reclaimed, the price may test the lower boundary of the upward channel since Feb 6. If that support fails, the likelihood of the rebound ending near $76,000 increases, and the market could retest $60,000, intensifying downward pressure. Overall, the market remains in a bearish dominant pattern.

• Conditions for wave C-3: If price falls below the Feb 6 low (~$60,000), wave C-3 will be confirmed, and downside targets will reopen, requiring preemptive risk preparedness.

Figure 3

2. This Week’s Forecast:

Expect continued oscillation and correction, focusing on the battle near the lower boundary of the channel (around Feb 6 low). Volume and price reactions here will be key to future direction.

3. Key Resistance Levels:

• First resistance zone: $69,500–$71,500 (previous consolidation zone, main short-term resistance)

• Second resistance zone: $74,500–$76,000 (near the Nov 2025 low, important for medium-term bearish strategy)

4. Key Support Levels:

• First support zone: $65,000–$66,000 (previous key support)

• Second support zone: $60,000–$62,500 (near Feb 6 low; if broken, bearish structure further reinforced)

• Third support: around $57,400 (important technical reference)

5. Weekly Trading Strategy (excluding unexpected news):

① Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin Daily Chart (Position Monitoring Model):

Figure 4

The position monitoring model shows the price is below the bullish-bearish ribbon (yellow), indicating a continued bearish structure. According to the rules, we hold the 60% short position established at $89,000 (Jan 28), with the medium-term outlook unchanged.

• If the price effectively breaks above $74,500, reduce the medium-term position to 40%.

• If the price breaks above the ribbon and stabilizes, close all medium-term positions and adjust strategy accordingly.

② Short-term strategy:

Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points based on support/resistance, and look for spread trading opportunities (30-minute/60-minute cycles). Strictly enforce stop-loss discipline.

③ Short-term A/B Plans:

Given the overall medium-term bearish trend, adopt a “trend-following shorting” approach. To adapt to market evolution and based on our proprietary signals, we propose two short-term plans:

• Plan A: Resistance on rebound, sell high.

• Entry: When price rebounds to $69,500–$71,500 and encounters resistance, trigger signals, and models indicate top, establish 15% short.

• Add-on: If it reaches $74,500–$76,000 and resistance persists, add another 15% short, controlling average cost.

• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss above $77,000, strictly enforced.

• Exit: Near key support levels, with model signals, gradually close positions to lock profits, avoiding full liquidation at once.

• Plan B: Break-down shorting.

• Entry: When price continues downward and breaks below channel lower boundary, then retraces but fails to hold, combined with top signals, establish 30% short position, leveraging momentum.

• Risk control: Initial stop-loss at 2% above entry price.

• Exit: When reaching support levels, close positions gradually.

Part Four: Bitcoin Short-term Trading Review (Mar 16–Mar 23)

1. Short-term Trading Review:

Strictly following our spread trading and momentum models, combined with market forecast, we executed a short (shorting) operation last week, earning 5.37% profit with disciplined execution.

① Bitcoin Short-term Trade Summary (1x leverage):

② Short-term Trade Review:

• Entry: When price approached $76,000 and encountered resistance, the spread model issued a strong top warning (green dot), resonating with the momentum model. Both signals confirmed a top. Based on this, we entered at $74,246 with 30% short.

• Exit: When price stabilized near $69,000 and the spread model signaled a bottom, with initial support features, we closed at $70,257, locking in profit.

• Summary: This trade achieved about 5.37% profit, with accurate directional judgment and model-supported entries/exits, demonstrating high execution quality.

2. Mid-term Review:

The mid-term strategy remains steady. Continuing to hold the 60% short position from $89,000 (Jan 28), as of last week’s close (~$67,865), profit is approximately 23.75%, with a maximum gain of 32.58%, overall good performance.

Part Five: Important Reminders

Risk management is the foundation of consistent profits. Please strictly follow these rules:

1. When opening a position: set initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move stop-loss to breakeven (cost basis).

3. When profit reaches 2%: move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuously monitor: for each additional 1% profit, move stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting gains.

Financial markets are volatile; all analysis and strategies require dynamic adjustment. The viewpoints, models, and strategies in this document are based solely on personal technical analysis and serve as personal trading logs. They do not constitute investment advice or operational directives. Market risks are inherent; please trade cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this content.