📌 Core Assessment (March 25)

- Short-term (1–3 days): Converging triangle inflection + oscillation dominant, likely ranging within $68,800–$71,800
- Medium-term (1–4 weeks): Bearish oscillation correction, rebound height limited, difficulty breaking $75,000 previous high
- Long-term (Q2–Q4): Initially suppressed then rising, Q4 expected to see cycle main uptrend

🧩 Short-term Trend (1–3 days)

1. Technical Analysis

- Pattern: End of converging triangle, upper rail $71,000–$71,200, lower rail $68,800–$69,000, inflection window open
- Indicators: 4H MACD red bars shrinking, KDJ peaking and turning, bullish momentum weakening; daily bearish momentum declining but not reversed
- Volume: Rebound with declining volume, pullback with mild volume increase, insufficient buyer support

2. Scenario Analysis

- Scenario A (Upside breakout): Holding above $71,800 + 4H closing with volume → Watch $72,500–$73,000, likely pullback thereafter
- Scenario B (Downside breakout): Breaking below $68,800 + 4H closing with volume → Probe $68,000–$67,500, triggering stop-loss selling pressure
- Scenario C (Oscillation): Range-bound movement → High sell low buy, $70,000–$71,000 bull-bear dividing line

📊 Medium-term Trend (1–4 weeks)

1. Core Suppression

- Macro: Fed maintains higher rates longer, 0% rate cut probability in 4/6 months, rate hike expectations rising in June, suppressing non-yielding assets
- Technical: Daily MA20/30/60 pressuring downward, failing to break downtrend line, bearish bias medium-term
- Funds: ETF outflows, whale selling pressure, leverage liquidation negative feedback, insufficient incremental capital

2. Key Levels

- Resistance: $71,800 (strong pressure) → $74,000 (Fibonacci 0.786) → $75,600 (previous high)
- Support: $68,000 (weekly support) → $65,000 (strong support) → $63,000 (February low)

3. Trend Path

- High probability: Oscillating decline + oversold rebound alternation, rebound difficulty breaking $74,000, center of gravity gradually shifting down
- Low probability: Macro shift (rate cut expectations easing) + capital reflow → Breaking $75,600, initiating medium-term rebound

🚀 Long-term Trend (2026 Q2–Q4)

1. Institutional Consensus

- First half (Q2): Oscillating base building, macro, regulation, capital repeatedly disturbing, no trending action
- Q3: Base stabilizing, liquidity expectations improving, ETF capital returning, miner clearing complete
- Q4: Cycle main uptrend, halving effect + liquidity easing + institutional reallocation convergence, target $100,000+

2. Key Drivers

- Liquidity: Fed rate cuts late Q3–Q4, weakening dollar, capital flowing back to risk assets
- Supply-demand: Post-halving supply reduction, sustained ETF inflows, weakening miner selling pressure
- Regulation: Clarity Act implementation, uncertainty removed, institutional compliant entry

🎯 Operation Strategy (By Cycle)

Short-term (Intraday/1–3 days)

- Range: $69,800–$70,000 light long, stop loss $68,700, target $71,000–$71,200
- Range: $71,000–$71,200 light short, stop loss $72,000, target $70,000–$69,500
- Breakout: Holding above $71,800 chase long, stop loss $71,500; breaking below $68,800 chase short, stop loss $69,200

Medium-term (1–4 weeks)

- Rebound: $72,000–$74,000 batch reduce/short, stop loss $75,600
- Pullback: $65,000–$68,000 batch buy dips, stop loss $63,000
- Position: Light positions mainly, strict stop loss, no holding against trend

Long-term (Q2–Q4)

- Layout: Q2–Q3 batch build position, buy dips, focus $60,000–$70,000 range
- Hold: Q4 main uptrend hold, target $100,000+, avoid frequent trading

📝 Risk Warning

- Macro: Fed rate hike, Middle East conflict, strong dollar, triggering liquidity squeeze
- Technical: False breakout, leverage liquidation, hash rate concentration, amplifying volatility
- Regulation: Stablecoin regulation, SEC enforcement, suppressing market sentiment

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