"Super El Niño" Coming? National Climate Center Responds

Recently, topics such as “This year and next could become the hottest years in history” and “The Earth may experience a super El Nino phenomenon” have frequently trended on social media, sparking widespread discussion. In response, experts from the National Climate Center pointed out that it is possible to enter an El Nino phase after late spring this year, but it is still too early to definitively say that a “super El Nino” will occur.

It is still too early to determine whether a super El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, will develop this year, experts said.

Multiple media outlets report that several global research institutions predict a strong El Nino may occur later this year, potentially disrupting global climate and causing extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters. It could also further raise global temperatures, leading to record-high summer temperatures this year and next.

Recent discussions on social media suggest that this year and next could be the hottest on record and that the Earth may be approaching a powerful El Nino event capable of triggering global climate disruptions.

Experts from the National Climate Center explained that the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate oscillation occurring in the tropical Pacific, with a cycle of 3 to 7 years. It is part of the climate system’s natural variability. Usually, ENSO phases are determined by monitoring the duration and strength of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a fixed region of the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which reflect deviations from the climate average.

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation, often known as ENSO, is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. Scientists classify ENSO phases by measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

When the three-month average SST anomaly exceeds 0.5°C for at least five consecutive months, it is considered an El Nino; if it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it is La Nina; if it fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered neutral.

When the three-month average temperature anomaly exceeds 0.5°C for at least five months, the event is considered an El Nino, while a sustained anomaly below minus 0.5°C indicates La Nina conditions.

Based on the latest monitoring data and forecasts from multiple climate models domestically and internationally, the National Climate Center said that the current La Nina phase is gradually ending and will likely transition into a neutral phase. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific are expected to continue warming, increasing the likelihood of El Nino conditions forming as early as late spring.

According to recent observations and model forecasts, the center said the current La Nina episode is gradually ending and will likely transition into a neutral phase in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue warming, raising the possibility that El Nino conditions could form as early as late spring.

Image source: National Climate Center

Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Division at the National Climate Center, stated that historical data shows that about one-third of La Nina events end with an El Nino phase in the same year. Although multiple international models predict different timings for El Nino development, the earliest could be as soon as April, and the latest by late summer or early fall. Due to these differences, it remains difficult to accurately predict the exact formation time and overall strength of the event.

Historical data show that the probability of entering an El Nino phase in the same year after a La Nina ends is about one-third, said Liu Yunyun, director of the climate prediction division at the center. Despite these projections, Liu said it remains difficult to determine precisely when an El Nino might form or how strong it would become.

Therefore, it is still premature to conclude that a “super El Nino” will occur this year.

“It is premature to conclude that a ‘super El Nino’ will occur this year,” she said.

Image source: China Meteorological Administration

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center’s Climate Prediction Division, pointed out that El Nino events often coincide with increases in global average temperatures. However, the extent of warming and the severity of extreme weather depend on the strength and type of the El Nino, as well as regional climate responses, she added.

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center’s climate prediction division, said El Nino events often coincide with rising global average temperatures. However, the scale of warming and the intensity of extreme weather events depend on the strength and type of the El Nino event as well as regional climate responses, she said.

In the context of frequent extreme weather and climate events, there is a vast amount of information circulating about weather and climate. Currently, discussions on social media about “the hottest year” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context.

The surge of climate-related discussions on social media, including claims about “the hottest year” or catastrophic weather, can sometimes involve exaggeration or information taken out of context.

Chen Lijuan advised the public to view forecast information rationally. Climate predictions involve uncertainties, especially regarding the exact timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Nino. The public should pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative sources rather than isolated extreme statements.

Chen urged the public to interpret such predictions cautiously, noting that climate forecasting always involves uncertainties, particularly regarding the timing, intensity and regional impacts of an El Nino event.

She recommended paying attention to official channels such as the National Climate Center, the China Meteorological Administration’s website, and official new media platforms for authoritative updates, and regularly reviewing reports like ENSO monitoring bulletins. International organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also publish global climate assessment reports that can serve as references.

Regardless of whether El Nino develops this year, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has become a new normal under global climate change. The public should stay alert to weather warnings from authoritative sources and prepare accordingly; agricultural producers should plan farming activities reasonably; city managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power, water, and transportation.

“Regardless of whether El Nino develops this year, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has become a new reality under global climate change,” Chen said, advising the public to stay alert to weather warnings from authoritative sources and prepare accordingly.

Reporter: Zhao Yimeng