Huatai Futures: Apple Premium Fruit Delivery Drives Market, Red Dates Face Inventory Pressure in Off-Season

Hot Topics

Selected Stocks Data Center Market Center Capital Flows Simulated Trading

Client

Source: Huatai Futures

Author: Bai Xuyu

Apple Outlook

Market News and Key Data

In futures, yesterday’s close for Apple contract 2605 was 10,144 yuan/ton, down 577 yuan/ton or 5.38% from the previous day. In spot markets, Shandong Qixia 80# second-grade late Fuji apples are priced at 4.00 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis is AP05-2144, up 577 from the previous day. Shaanxi Luochuan 70# semi-commercial late Fuji apples are priced at 4.35 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis is AP05-1444, up 577 from the previous day.

Recent market news indicates that apple prices in production areas remain stable, with good quality goods trading better than average. Transactions in the Northwest are stable, with limited remaining good quality fruit from farmers. Ordinary quality fruit from farmers is trading slowly. In Shandong, demand for good quality fruit is increasing, with a slight rise in export transactions. Overall, prices for general sources from farmers are somewhat chaotic. Market volume in sales areas remains low, with average terminal sales. Qixia 80#一二级片红价格3.2-4.5元/斤，80# general goods are around 2.5-3 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi Luochuan, farmers’ general goods are priced at 3.5-4.0 yuan per jin, semi-commercial goods at 4.0-4.5 yuan per jin. Gansu Qingning semi-commercial apples are priced at 5-7.5 yuan per jin, with farmers’ ordinary goods at 3.7-5 yuan per jin.

Market Analysis

Yesterday, apple futures prices fluctuated downward, with open interest decreasing. Inventory levels are at historic lows nationwide, with structural shortages of high-quality sources supporting the market. However, overall spot trading has slowed, with weaker transactions for ordinary goods. As May contracts approach position limits, the bullish and bearish forces intensify, leading to short-term corrections. Good quality and inferior goods are diverging in trend: Northwest good quality apples remain firm, while general goods in Shandong see weak trading. Sales in the distribution areas are steady but slow, with the Qingming Festival stockpiling demand not fully released. In the short term, the market is likely to fluctuate at high levels, with focus on inventory reduction pace and weather disruptions during the new season’s flowering period.

Strategy

Neutral.

Risks

Inventory structure conflicts, demand below expectations, competition from low-priced substitute fruits.

Red Dates Outlook

Market News and Key Data

In futures, yesterday’s close for Red Date contract 2605 was 8,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.23%. In spot markets, Hebei Grade 1 gray dates are priced at 7.90 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis is CJ05-960, down 20 from the previous day.

Recent market news shows that for the 2025 harvest season, Xinjiang gray dates are priced between 5.00-6.50 yuan per kilogram, with mainstream prices in Aksu at 5.00-5.30 yuan/kg, Aral at 5.20-5.80 yuan/kg, Kashgar trading prices at 6.20-6.40 yuan/kg, and Maigaiti at 6.00-6.30 yuan/kg. Temperatures in the production areas are normal, and farmers are actively managing their orchards. Over the weekend, Hebei Cuiruzhuang market received over ten trucks, mostly with off-grade fruit, with buyers purchasing small quantities as needed. Ruyifang Market in Guangdong received 7 trucks, mainly from Xinjiang and inland sources, with stable prices and average early market transactions.

Market Analysis

Yesterday, red date futures prices moved within a narrow range, continuing a bottom-range oscillation. The core contradiction remains between abundant supply and weak demand under a high inventory situation. The new planting season has not yet started, and market focus is returning to the fundamentals of spot supply. The off-season for consumption is becoming more evident, with downstream sales sluggish and replenishment limited. In Xinjiang, date trees are dormant, with traders eager to sell but limited actual transactions. In sales areas, most goods are off-grade, with downstream buyers purchasing as needed, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere. Slow inventory reduction and a loose supply-demand pattern are expected to persist in the short term, exerting continuous downward pressure on prices. Price rebounds may trigger hedging pressures, with the market likely to oscillate within a range. Future focus should be on sales pace and weather conditions during the budding period in production areas.

Strategy

Neutral.

Risks

Seasonal decline in consumption, inventory clearance pressure, weather disruptions in production areas.

Investment Consulting Business Qualification: Securities Permit [2011] No. 1289

Disclaimer:

This report is prepared based on information deemed reliable and publicly available, but the company makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. The opinions, conclusions, and forecasts in this report reflect only the views and judgments at the time of publication. The company may issue different research reports at different times, which may contradict this report. The company does not guarantee that the information herein remains current. The company reserves the right to modify the information without notice. Investors should pay attention to updates or revisions independently. The company strives for objectivity and fairness, but the opinions, conclusions, and recommendations are for reference only, and investors should exercise independent judgment. The company and authors are not responsible for any consequences resulting from reliance on or use of this report. All trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are the property of the company. Without written permission, no organization or individual may reproduce, copy, publish, quote, or redistribute this report in any form. If quoting or publishing with permission, it must be within the permitted scope, with the source credited as “Huatai Futures Research Institute,” and any quotations or modifications must not distort the original intent. The company reserves the right to pursue legal responsibility. All trademarks and service marks in this report are owned by the company. Huatai Futures Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

Open a futures account with Huatai, professional and trustworthy.

Massive information, precise analysis, all on Sina Finance APP.

Editor: Zhu Henan