Federal Reserve | Powell Says Disappointing Inflation Data Leads Him to Raise Rate Expectations by 0.5%

SighingCashier · 2026-03-25T22:46:30+00:00

Federal Reserve Governor Mellen raised his year-end interest rate forecast by 0.5 basis points in light of recent disappointing inflation data. He stated that this adjustment is unrelated to oil and Iran issues, and is primarily based on the Federal Open Market Committee's economic projections. Additionally, oil shocks have limited impact on inflation expectations, but may increase unemployment rate risks.

SighingCashier

2026-03-25 22:46:30

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U.S. Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Miran stated that due to disappointing inflation data since his forecast last December, he has raised his end-of-year interest rate expectation by 0.5 percentage points.

Miran explained at an event in New York on Wednesday that the 0.5 percentage point increase in his policy rate outlook was not due to issues with oil and Iran, but rather because of inflation data he received. This data refers to the economic forecasts released after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting last week, which brought his interest rate expectations closer to neutral, and previously, inflation policy targets among policymakers were not a prominent concern.

Miran said that the impact of oil shocks on U.S. inflation expectations is “zero spillover,” but it could pose upside risks to the unemployment rate.

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