Pharmaceutical Companies Chasing the "Drug King" is Not as Good as Developing the "Drug King"

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■ Zhang Min

Semaglutide, a long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist, was once dubbed the “King of Drugs” by the market, with annual sales exceeding $36 billion. On March 20th, its core compound patent in China officially expired, ending over a decade of market exclusivity. This day has been long awaited in the industry.

Looking at the GLP-1 sector, if the past was dominated by Semaglutide’s “solo performance,” now the landscape has shifted dramatically into a “battle among many heroes” cycle. According to the National Medical Products Administration, 10 domestic companies have already submitted registration applications for generic Semaglutide. Several other pharmaceutical companies’ generics are also in clinical stages. This indicates that a billion-yuan-level market competition has quietly begun.

More notably, the global “King of Drugs” position for Semaglutide is also being challenged. By 2025, Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 drug Tirzepatide, with annual sales of $36.507 billion, will surpass Semaglutide to become the new global “King of Drugs.” Tirzepatide’s victory is no accident—in head-to-head clinical trials, it demonstrated advantages in weight loss and other key indicators. This change confirms that innovation in this sector is progressing far faster than market expectations.

In the face of increasing generic entry and accelerated innovation, Chinese pharmaceutical companies are presented with a window of opportunity to catch up. I believe that instead of chasing the “King of Drugs,” companies should focus on how to develop the “King of Drugs.” This can serve as a key to unlocking China’s pharmaceutical industry’s leap from “follower” to “leader.”

On one hand, developing a “King of Drugs” requires companies to have a forward-looking strategic vision and perseverance. To secure a position in the next race for the “King,” Chinese firms must break free from the dependency on “what’s hot” and invest patience and resilience in early target discovery and differentiated clinical layouts. This is not about short-term financial returns but a long-term test of strategic resolve.

On the other hand, creating a “King of Drugs” demands comprehensive innovation capabilities. The development path of GLP-1 drugs clearly shows that a blockbuster drug relies not only on breakthroughs in the first-generation molecules but also on continuous iteration—such as dual or multi-target mechanism innovations that overcome single-target efficacy bottlenecks; oral formulations that improve patient compliance; expanding new indications to continually break market ceilings. Managing the entire lifecycle from discovery to development to iteration is precisely the soft power that Chinese pharmaceutical companies often overlook amid the generics boom.

Fortunately, Chinese pharmaceutical companies now possess strong R&D capabilities. In the GLP-1 sector, we see not only rapid generic follow-ups but also the emergence of differentiated innovations: some companies’ dual-target drugs show weight loss data comparable to international front-runners; others’ oral small-molecule GLP-1 candidates may develop unique advantages in convenience of administration. These explorations demonstrate that Chinese firms are not just followers—they have the capacity to participate in global competition at the forefront.

Patents have a limited lifespan, but innovation knows no bounds. In the GLP-1 arena, the curtain has risen on a fierce battle among many players. But the true winners will not be those who run fastest as followers, but those who see further as pioneers. This may be the most valuable lesson that the “King of Drugs” competition offers to China’s pharmaceutical industry.

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Editor: Gao Jia