First, first determine, all large and small moving averages have turned downward.

StrawberryIce · 2026-03-25T23:51:05+00:00

The article analyzed short-term market fluctuations and the impact of US-Iran tensions on oil prices, believing that Iran is unlikely to negotiate quickly and oil prices will remain between $85 to $100. A-shares will find it difficult to return to previous highs in the short term, but new transportation routes will gradually weaken the effects of conflict. In the future, the market will shift focus to core themes such as AI and productivity improvements.

StrawberryIce

2026-03-25 23:51:05

Abstract generation in progress

First, to clarify, this is a correction that occurred around 3815, with the highest today reaching 3931. Those who are not greedy will definitely sell today rather than hold until tomorrow.
Let me also share my view on the US-Iran situation. The war has been going on for over 20 days, and Iran’s useful facilities have been destroyed. A peace negotiation is currently unrealistic for Iran. I believe the Iranian leadership won’t be foolish enough to negotiate now. The global status of the Strait will definitely be diminished by various countries, which is to prevent such incidents from happening again. If they rush into peace talks now, it would be the beginning of Iran’s nightmare. The Iranians also know this, so I think oil prices here will stay between $85 and $100 for a long time. The two countries will likely continue to drag things out, and when tensions escalate, they will talk. Therefore, the market’s trading logic will shift back to trading US dollar liquidity. Before the next Federal Reserve rate decision, the A-shares market in mainland China is unlikely to return to the high of 4197, but there is a bottom line. For example, today COSCO opened a new shipping route. Over time, the impact of the Strait and the war will diminish marginally. Capital speculation should return to the core theme of AI-driven productivity and changes in production relations.

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