March 27 Member Morning Report: Iran also提出“不可能” ceasefire conditions, Trump exhibits "mental confusion" style wavering

1. 【Iran Also Proposes ‘Impossible’ Ceasefire Conditions】According to CCTV News, on the 26th local time, Iran officially responded last night through intermediaries to the U.S. proposal for a 15-point ceasefire plan. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Iran clearly stated in its response that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist acts must cease; objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not recur; commitments to compensate for war damages must be made and implemented; and all resistance organizations involved in the conflict on all fronts and regions must cease operations.

Comment: Faced with Trump’s “impossible” conditions, Iran simply responds with “impossible.” By proposing these “impossible” conditions, Iran cleverly kicks the ball back to the U.S. side. Now both parties are performing for the international community, showing who is insincere about peace talks, while secretly preparing for war.

2. 【Trump Exhibits ‘Madman’ Fluctuations】After receiving Iran’s “reply,” Trump immediately convened a cabinet meeting, claiming Iran “pleaded for a deal,” then said the U.S. was unsure whether it intended to resolve the issue diplomatically, “I don’t know if we can do it, I don’t know if we are willing to do it.” Later that day, he repeatedly posted threats to Iran over negotiations, urging Iran to take the matter seriously, warning that otherwise it would be too late.

Comment: Trump’s oscillation is often categorized in international relations as the application of the “Madman Theory”: by displaying emotional, unpredictable, and even irrational traits, it creates a fear in opponents that “this person will do anything.” Of course, another possibility is that Trump is genuinely anxious and conflicted.

3. 【Turkey’s Crazy ‘Gold Dumping’】According to the latest data released by the Central Bank of Turkey, Turkey’s gold reserves decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13, and another 52.4 tons in the week of March 20, showing a sharp decline in reserves; the total value of gold sold or exchanged over two weeks exceeds $8 billion. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that some of this was direct selling, while most was through swap agreements to obtain foreign exchange or lira. This sale marks a reversal of Turkey’s stance: over the past decade, seeking to reduce dependence on U.S. dollar assets, Turkey has been one of the world’s most active gold buyers.

4. 【Iran Claims to Have Organized a 1-Hundred-Thousand-Strong Ground Force】According to CCTV News, on Thursday, the 26th local time, Iranian military sources said Iran has organized over 1 million troops for ground combat readiness. In recent days, a large number of Iranian youth have submitted enlistment applications to Basij militias, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and army recruitment centers.

5. 【U.S. Media Reports Pentagon Developing ‘Lethal Strike’ Plan】According to Xinhua News Agency citing U.S. media, U.S. officials and sources said the U.S. Department of Defense is formulating a “lethal strike” military plan against Iran, which may include deploying ground forces and conducting large-scale bombings. The sources revealed that specific options include invading or blockading Iran’s main oil export hub Kharg Island, attacking strategic locations controlling the Strait of Hormuz such as Larak Island, seizing Abu Musa Island and two other small islands at the western entrance of the strait, and blocking or seizing ships transporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Strait. Additionally, the U.S. military has developed inland ground operations plans to obtain highly enriched uranium from Iran’s nuclear facilities, with another option being large-scale airstrikes to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear materials in the future.