[US Stock Market Close] Trump extends strike on Iranian power plant for another 10 days; oil prices worry about Strait blockade for an additional 10 days (updating)

President Trump posted on social platform Truth Social stating, “At Iran’s government’s request, please let this statement represent my suspension of the power plant destruction for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite false reports from fake news media and others spreading contrary misinformation, the progress of the negotiations is very smooth.”

Brent crude oil once surged by 7%, but due to the continued threat of a 10-day blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jumped another 5%, reaching $107.

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Concerns over inflation persist, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.412%, up 0.079%. The US dollar index increased by 0.3%, to 99.93.

The Dow closed down 469 points, at 45,960; the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, to 6,477; and the Nasdaq dropped 2.4%, to 21,408.

During a cabinet meeting, Trump said the US will continue to strike Iran until they reach an agreement to end the conflict. He confirmed that the US still plans to keep the Iran war going for only four to six weeks.

Trump revealed that the “gift” from Iran’s negotiators was allowing at least 8 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. He said these ships passing through the strait send a signal to the US that the negotiators are showing “we are genuine and reliable.” Trump mentioned these tankers might fly Pakistani flags. He added, “I said, ‘Hmm, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some of their words and said they would send two more ships.” The White House declined to provide further details about the tankers.

Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s negotiators are unusual and somewhat “strange.” On one hand, they “plead” for a deal with the US, which is understandable. However, they publicly state they are only considering the US’s proposals. He said this is a big mistake and urged Iran to get serious quickly, or it will be too late with dire consequences.

In an interview later, Trump said the Iran issue will be resolved soon, not too long, and energy prices will fall, possibly even to lower levels. He expressed uncertainty about whether they are willing to reach an agreement with Iran now, noting they should have done so four weeks ago but missed the opportunity. He also mentioned that the US has thoroughly destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of its missiles and missile launchers, and that Iran should have used nuclear weapons against Israel, other regional countries, and the US.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources saying Iran officially responded on Wednesday evening (25th) to the US’s 15-point ceasefire proposal and is awaiting the other side’s reply. Iran stated that the invasion and terrorist acts by enemies must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure the war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be implemented across all fronts and against all resistance organizations involved in the conflict throughout the region.

Egypt confirmed participation in US-Iran mediation. Foreign Minister Abdel Atti said Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting the US in transmitting messages to Iran and participating in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate regional tensions.

Schroder said that the development of the Iran conflict remains uncertain, making the outlook for the economy and financial markets unclear: if oil prices stay above $120 per barrel or below $90, the global economy will look very different. Compared to February, the probabilities of these two extreme scenarios have increased, while the “economic stability” scenario, which was more moderate and dovish, has seen its likelihood decrease.

The bank noted that inflationary pressures from oil price shocks have increased the likelihood of an “overheating” scenario for the economy; however, this assessment remains lower than market-implied probabilities. Central banks worldwide will closely monitor the potential for “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see the next page.

• Market movements:
  【23:00】Trump: Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall, Egypt confirms mediation, Dow down 75 points, oil up 4%
  【21:30】Trump urges Iran negotiators to get serious quickly, Egypt confirms mediation, Dow down 218 points, oil up 4%
  【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%, oil up 4%, gold rebounds after two days of decline
  【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241
  【14:27】Oil up 2%, NY crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold, after two days of rebound, falls again, NY gold down 3%, at $4,446; spot gold down 1.7%, at $4,429
  【14:19】【Private Equity】Goldman Sachs former CEO warns of hidden “fire” risk in private markets; unliquidated assets could trigger large impairments
  【13:39】【US Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysis: current rebound driven by ceasefire speculation, US-Iran conflict unlikely to end soon, oil prices expected to rise again
  【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors underestimate Iran war risk; even if “war ends tomorrow,” oil could surge to $150
  【11:43】【AI + Meta】Massive AI investments; Meta launches new round of layoffs involving hundreds
  【10:47】【Dollar Trend】Morgan Stanley: Rising dollar may be a “trap for long positions”; market underestimates Iran conflict’s adverse impact on US economy; Fed likely to cut rates twice this year
  【10:15】【US Rate Cuts】Fed Board member Mester raises rate hike expectations by 0.5%, citing no link to oil or Iran factors
  【09:28】【Gold Trend】Gold rebounds after two days of decline, remains above $4,500; local gold prices rise by 1,800 yuan per tael
  【08:47】【Oil Trend】US assesses impact of extreme scenario where oil hits $200; White House denies
  【08:29】【Iran Crisis】Citrini founder: Fed will “ignore” oil shocks, no need to give up on rate cuts; issued “doomsday” AI report in February that unsettled markets
  【08:04】【Xi-Trump Meeting】White House announces Trump to visit China May 14-15; Xi Jinping to visit Washington later this year
  【07:27】【Iran Crisis】No signs of Iran “sending big gift”; White House Leavitt: if Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will escalate strikes (updating)

$1 or less for March 25 US stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow up 305 points; Iran claims to shoot down US F-18; White House: Trump to visit China in mid-May

White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced Wednesday that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing on May 14-15; market expects this schedule indicates the US expects the Middle East war to end around mid-May, leading to a significant rebound in US stocks.

See the market close:

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The Dow’s gain expanded to as much as 594 points, but due to ongoing uncertainty in war negotiations, it closed up 305 points at 46,429; the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, to 6,477; the Nasdaq increased 0.77%, to 21,189; the China concept stock index, Golden Dragon Index, rose 1.86%.

Key stocks: Tesla released an official video of Optimus, revealing details about the development environment, reduction gearboxes, dexterous hands, and other designs. Tesla claims Optimus will fundamentally change the labor and manufacturing economy. Elon Musk said production of Optimus 3 is expected to start this summer, with mass production possible by 2027. Tesla (TSLA) rose 0.8%.

Amazon and Nvidia stocks gained 2%, UK chip design company ARM launched its own chips, boosting ADR stocks by 16.4%.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Wednesday that its air defense forces shot down a US F-18 fighter jet in southeastern airspace, which then crashed into the Indian Ocean.

Iran’s Fars News Agency quoted sources saying Iran will refuse the US ceasefire proposal and continue attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries. They criticized Trump’s indirect negotiations as illogical and unfeasible at this stage. Iran focuses on achieving its goals; only when these are met can the war end, not through a ceasefire. This news caused oil prices to fall slightly, with NY crude dropping up to 6.38%, to $90.32, down 2.2%; Brent crude once plunged 7% to $97.15, then closed at $102.22, down 2.2%.

Iran’s Press TV cited the Atomic Energy Organization reporting that the Bushir nuclear power plant was attacked again Tuesday night at 9 PM local time. The plant was previously attacked in mid-March, but the IAEA said the reactor was undamaged.

Iran reiterated that non-hostile ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination. Marine Traffic data shows nine ships have passed through the strait since Monday (23rd).

Spot gold rose up to 2.83%, to $4,602.34; Bitcoin temporarily increased by 2.79%, to $72,013.

Memory chip stocks tumbled against the trend, with Micron (MU) down 3.4%, Sandisk (SNDK) down 3.5%. The decline was mainly due to South Korea’s SK Hynix planning to list in the US.

Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has submitted confidential filings to the SEC, planning to issue ADRs within the year, possibly raising up to $10 billion. A spokesperson said that measures to enhance shareholder value, including ADR issuance, are under review but no final decision has been made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see the next page.

• Market movements:
  【22:40】Dow up 371 points
  【21:30】Brent crude drops 5%, falls below $100; Dow up 580 points, Nasdaq up 1.2%; Micron down 6%
  【17:55】Iran war negotiations “warming up”; Dow futures up 365 points, Nasdaq futures up 1%; Brent crude down 4%, below $100
  【14:54】Dow futures up 339 points, at 46,754; S&P futures up 42 points, at 6,648; Nasdaq futures up 160 points or 0.7%, at 24,374
  【14:54】Oil down 3.4%, NY crude at $89.2, Brent at $100.3; Gold up 3.3%, at $4,578; spot gold up 1.7%, at $4,549
  【13:57】【AI + Sora】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms to compete in enterprise AI market; 17.5% minimum return
  【13:52】【AI + IPO】SK Hynix plans to list in the US within the year, has filed with the SEC, possibly raising up to $10 billion

【13:32】【US Stock Analysis】US proposes ceasefire with Iran, Dow futures up over 300 points; analysis: Trump’s TACO, two major issues to watch in the near term

【11:01】【Iran Situation】JPMorgan’s Dimon: Long-term conflict could lead to lasting peace in the Middle East, as regional powers’ interests align
【10:48】【US-China Relations】Chinese investment firms considering re-allocating assets to US asset managers
【10:26】【AI + Apple】Siri evolving beyond voice assistant? Apple upgrades Siri to a chat robot, adds “Ask Siri” feature, expected at WWDC in June
【10:00】【Yen Trend】Yen to HKD at 4.93; Bank of Japan minutes: some members call for timely rate hikes to combat inflation
【09:58】【US Rate Cuts】Fed’s Mester raises rate hike expectations by 0.5%, citing no link to oil or Iran issues
【09:39】【Gold Trend】Gold ends nine-day decline, stays above $4,500; local gold prices rise 1,800 yuan per tael
【08:54】【ARM + Chips】Arm surges 8% after hours, plans to sell its own chips for the first time, expected to generate about $15 billion annually in five years; Meta is its first major customer
【08:26】【IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to file for IPO as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion
【08:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Iran will send a big gift today; Rubio and Vance involved in negotiations; condition: “must not have nuclear weapons” (updating)
【08:01】【AI + Amazon】Software stocks hit hard again; Amazon reportedly developing new AI agents to replace some departments

$1 or less for March 24 US stock market overview====

Tuesday: US seeks talks with Iran on Thursday; Brent stable, Dow narrows decline

Multiple US media reports indicate the US is engaging with Iran on a ceasefire plan. Axios reports that the US and mediators are discussing the possibility of high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still waiting for Tehran’s response.

Iranian officials deny Trump’s claims of behind-the-scenes negotiations but confirm that the US has sent messages and proposals.

Oil prices are cautious; Brent up 0.2%, at $100.17; NY crude up 4.8%, at $92.35.

Gold rebounds, spot gold up 1.6%, at $4,475.51; spot silver little changed, at $71.2194.

The US dollar index rose 0.3%, to 99.23; US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.36%.

US stocks are slightly weaker; Dow once fell 438 points to 45,769, but closed down 84 at 46,124; S&P down 0.4%, at 6,556; Nasdaq down 0.8%, at 21,761.

Trump has postponed the final ultimatum by 5 days, but sporadic attacks continue between Israel and Iran. Pakistan’s prime minister said they are willing to host US-Iran talks to resolve ongoing conflicts.

Market sources say Iran has begun collecting tolls from some ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, charged on a per-ship basis, with a maximum of $2 million per voyage, effectively establishing an informal “toll” in this waterway. Some ships have paid, but the payment mechanism and currency are unclear.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported Tuesday that, after close coordination with authorities, a Thai-flagged ship successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli media Ynet quoted officials saying the US has set April 9 as the target date to end the Iran conflict, giving over half a month for fighting and negotiations. Washington is trying to end hostilities by late April. If the conflict ends around April 9, Trump plans to visit Israel around May 14, the Independence Day. Pakistan and other countries are actively mediating, trying to arrange indirect US-Iran talks, possibly in Pakistan this week, but no official confirmation.

Additionally, Russian media cited Oman journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahouri on BBC Arabic, confirming US pressure on Gulf countries to pay huge sums for US involvement in Iran conflicts.

The report states Trump is demanding huge “protection fees” from Arab allies—either $5 trillion (about HKD 39 trillion) to continue the conflict or $2.5 trillion (about HKD 19.5 trillion) to end it, claiming this is compensation for “achieved results.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see the next page.

• Market movements:
  【22:50】Iran collecting “toll” from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 3%
  【21:30】Pakistan ready to host US-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 4%
  【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Possible breakthrough? Trump reportedly demands huge protection fee: $2.5 trillion to end war
  【16:00】【Iran Crisis】US sets April 9 as “end of war” date; Iran continues denial
  【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, at 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points, at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, at 24,258
  【14:00】Oil rebounds, NY crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold continues to weaken, NY gold down 0.9%, at $4,400; spot gold down 1.1%, at $4,357
  【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Short-term gold prices likely to fluctuate with Middle East conflict; end-2023 target remains at $6,250
  【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms to compete in enterprise AI market; 17.5% minimum return
  【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43
  【12:34】【Gold Trend】Gold prices continue to decline after nine days of fall; local gold price per two taels drops below HKD 40,000
  【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; cut may last until April
  【11:51】【Gold Trend】Gold enters bear market after over 20% drop from high; Morgan Stanley: funds flowing from safe-haven assets to stocks, positive for US equities
  【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Prime Minister Shinzo Abe orders assessment of oil supply chain amid crisis; Ministry of Finance reportedly consulting on possible intervention in crude futures
  【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: AI wave may worsen wealth inequality; investors should hedge risks via stock holdings
  【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI warns in investor documents that dependence on Microsoft poses risks; what other risks exist?
  【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed official Daly: US economy faces at least two scenarios; Fed needs flexibility to respond to risks
  【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual WWDC to be held June 8; expected to unveil new AI features
  【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies negotiations with Trump; UK destroyer “HMS Dragon” arrives in Mediterranean (updating)