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Shouchuang Futures: Cost support, PTA futures prices fluctuate and rebound
On the supply side, as some maintenance units gradually restart, PTA load has significantly increased last week. Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million-ton PTA plant’s load increased from 50% to 80%; Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s maintenance started on March 2 for 18 days; Yisheng New Materials’ 3.6 million-ton plant has resumed operation; INEOS’ 1.25 million-ton plant resumed in early March; Dushan Energy’s #2 2.5 million-ton unit stopped on February 10 and restarted on the 27th. In February, PTA inventory increased by 600,000 tons, higher than the same period last year. The PTA maintenance plan for March is still unclear, and it is expected that PTA will continue to accumulate inventory in March.
On the demand side, polyester load has slightly rebounded month-on-month, with weaving operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang gradually recovering.
Overall, with increased PTA operating rates, the industry maintains a stock accumulation pattern. The cost side’s PX prices remain strong, providing some support for PTA. In the short term, PTA futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, with attention to cost trends, maintenance intensity, and downstream production recovery progress. (First Capital Futures)