Tesla once again lowers electric vehicle sales forecast, with last year's deliveries experiencing the largest decline in history.

On March 26 local time, Tesla released its “sell-side analyst expectations compilation,” again cutting its forecast for the company’s 2025 electric-vehicle sales.

The analyst expectations compilation shows that 23 selected investment banks predict the company’s total deliveries for 2026 will be approximately 1.689 million units. This is a clear downgrade from the 1.75 million figure compiled at the end of last year. The company’s deliveries in 2026 Q1 are expected to be 365,600 new vehicles, up 8.6% year over year, but down 12.6% quarter over quarter. Of these, deliveries of Model 3/Y are 351,000 units, while other models such as the Cybertruck are delivered at nearly 18,000 units.

Notably, the list of the 23 institutions has changed. Wedbush and Oppenheimer, which have long been loudly bullish on tech stocks and Tesla, were removed from the list. Five institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Mizuho Financial Group were added to the list.

This is Tesla’s second “analyst expectations compilation” since the company was founded. At the end of last December, Tesla released its delivery forecast for that year’s fourth quarter via its investor relations website. For the first time, it officially published and compiled delivery-volume forecast data from 20 well-known institutions, including Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays. This move was interpreted as an active strategy by the company to manage market expectations in advance and respond to potential performance pressure.

Based on the delivery forecast data Tesla disclosed at the time, institutions expected it to deliver 4.229 million vehicles in 2025 Q4, down about 15% from the same period in 2024, and below the average estimate of 4.45 million vehicles for 2025 Q4 by external institutions such as Bloomberg and FactSet. For full-year deliveries, the data predicted 2025 deliveries would be 1.6408 million units, down nearly 8% from 1.789 million units in 2024.

The actual situation is that Tesla’s global deliveries in 2025 were 1.6361 million units, down as much as 8.6% year over year, marking the largest year-over-year decline in its history, and also the second consecutive year of delivery declines. In 2024, its deliveries were 1.7892 million units, down slightly 1.07% year over year—its first annual decline in car deliveries.

Tesla’s revenue and profits both declined in 2025. According to its financial report, Tesla’s total revenue in 2025 was $94.827 billion, down 3% year over year—its first time revenue declined. Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was $3.794 billion, down 46% year over year. Among them, revenue from its automotive business was $69.526 billion, down 10% year over year.

Tesla said the revenue decline was mainly driven by factors such as “a decrease in vehicle deliveries” and “a decline in regulatory subsidy revenue,” along with the combined effects of growth in “energy generation and energy storage business” and “service and other business,” as well as foreign-exchange factors, which together changed the company’s revenue structure.

Tesla’s energy storage business currently looks relatively strong. In full-year 2025, Tesla’s installed energy storage capacity reached 46.7 gigawatt-hours, up 48.7% year over year. Of this, energy storage product installations in Q4 totaled 14.2 gigawatt-hours, up 13% quarter over quarter. In the same period, revenue from this business was $3.837 billion, up 25% year over year, and gross margin reached 28.6%.

2026 will become Tesla’s “key turning point year.” Some analysts believe the company is transitioning from traditional electric-vehicle sales to AI, autonomous driving, and robotics, and that Tesla’s autonomous driving and robotics business will significantly impact its performance, potentially helping the company move toward a $3 trillion market value. However, before these businesses truly generate cash flow, electric vehicles are still the main source of Tesla’s cash flow, providing funding for the money-burning AI projects.

As of the close of trading on March 26 in US Eastern Time, Tesla’s share price was $372.11 per share, down 3.59%, with a market capitalization of $1.40 trillion.

Massive amounts of information, precise interpretation—available on the Sina Finance app