2026 will be the "turning year" for consumption! Food & Beverage ETFs and Food ETFs are at low levels and attracting attention.

Ask AI · Why is the consumer goods sector accelerating faster than baijiu during the recovery?

According to research views from organizations including Guotai Junan Haitong and Citic Securities: 2026 will be the key year in which a turning point in consumer industry conditions is firmly established. Among them, baijiu is accelerating as it reaches the bottom, while consumer goods benefit from recovery + pricing increases + high elasticity, with quarterly year-over-year growth in total operating revenue performing better than baijiu.

Looking further into sub-industries, Guotai Junan Haitong’s analysis suggests:

Baijiu: Late-stage of the adjustment; in the long run, pricing holds; ongoing trend toward greater concentration. This cycle moves from a “U-shaped adjustment” to a “V-shaped adjustment.” Starting in the third quarter of 2025, the company has significantly lowered expectations; the quarterly decline is close to or even exceeds the worst value of the prior cycle, and the process of accelerated base-building is expected;

Beer: As dining scenarios bottom out and stabilize, and mainstream consumption gradually recovers, improvement in the beer industry is promising. Referring to historical periods of CPI rebound, the beer sector as a whole shows margin expansion and profitability benefits;

Soft drinks: Recently, concerns about rising PET prices have led to a pullback in the soft drinks sector, but leading companies’ PE valuations remain in historically low-to-mid ranges, which makes them attractive. Given the stability on the demand side, cost control capability, and favorable dividend and payout conditions, the overall investment opportunities for leading soft-drinks companies look promising;

Consumer goods: Marginal recovery in catering demand; the turning point for condiments is approaching, and higher unit prices are expected; the supply-demand cycle of dairy products will resonate together, and a reversal is imminent, with upside elasticity expected; for the snacks sector, prioritize companies with logic for expansion of new product categories and new channels.

Focus on bottom-up coverage by tracking the indices of the above industries.

Linked ETFs:

Food & Beverage ETF Huaxia (515170.SH) tracks the CSI sub-industry Food & Beverage Thematic Index. Compared with pure liquor ETFs, it focuses more on two types of companies: (1) leading brands with strong brand power and outstanding cost-control capabilities, and (2) high-quality regional liquor enterprises with regional barriers and benefiting from state-owned asset integration. (Fund link C: 013126, Fund link A: 013125);

Food ETF Huaxia (159151.SZ) tracks the CSI All Share Food Index, covering leading consumer-goods companies such as condiments and fermentation products, dairy products, meat products, and leisure snacks—for example, Yili Corporation and Haitian Flavoring & Food. Compared with traditional food and beverage indices, the All Share Food Index completely excludes baijiu and beer, making it more aligned with daily consumer needs among the broader public; its counter-cyclical, essential-consumption attribute is stronger.