[Red Envelope] "Practical Tips" Vita's Big Picture Perspective: Understanding Market Trends, How to Capture Market Core, and Eliminate Ineffective Trades!

Lai Tao County has finally surpassed 10,000 fans in a month, thanks to the strong support from all friends![Tao Gu Ba]
Vita is a professional ultra-short trader, with a six-year career in the market, adhering to the Dragon’s method, only focusing on the market’s core leaders, heavily investing to reap excess profits in the short term, and sharing real-time updates every day, gaining praise from a large number of fans!
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In the future, Vita will also remain true to the original intention, striving to be a guiding light for all the original shareholders in the Ice Fan Group on their short-term trading journey! Like-minded friends are also welcome to follow!**

Regarding the mindset:
The essence of short-term trading lies in patiently waiting. In the market, true opportunities are scarce. Most experts rely on patience, waiting for those moments with a ten percent win rate, without rushing to act. Because they understand, the market is always there, and opportunities are endless. The steady growth of an account does not come from reckless surges, but from the combination of time, compound interest, capital management, and discipline.
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In the worldview of short-term trading, true wise traders are never anxious about temporary capital shortages. They understand that capital is the result of trading, not the starting capital.**
A person who truly understands the essence of short-term trading, even with limited funds, will gradually accumulate wealth like a rolling snowball, through wisdom and patience. They do not rush to achieve success, nor will they impulsively borrow to enter the market, as chasing quick gains is the biggest trap in short-term trading.
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The road of short-term trading is long; there is no need to rush or hurry. As long as you move steadily forward, the endpoint of profit will inevitably be reached. This is a journey that requires patience and discipline; every successful big player proves through action that steady progress is the ultimate principle of short-term trading!**
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To get to the point:**
Today I will share with you how to observe market sentiment. The main purpose is to help all fans better understand the current stage of market speculation based on the replayed analysis, truly recognizing the position of current market speculation, and then grasping the profit effect of individual stocks. Today’s practical post will only discuss the big picture, understanding cycles, and accurately capturing the core!

For short-term trading, there are only two emotional states representing the cycles:
1. The starting point of a downtrend exhaustion
The first point here is that the sentiment ultimately needs to be anchored to the market, including the sentiment and price of the leaders, which must lead the market.
2. The endpoint of an uptrend exhaustion
The second point here is that the sentiment ultimately anchors to the thematic leader’s sentiment, with amplified loss effects, starting to hit limit down.

I. The starting point of a downtrend exhaustion
Regarding downtrend exhaustion, as the name implies, it means that it has fallen to a standstill. But in practical operations, how do we know it has stopped falling? We must pay attention to time nodes and anticipate market recovery, which is actually a very simple matter; the underlying logic is just that rising too much leads to falling, and falling too much leads to rising. However, after falling a lot, we need to understand when it will start rising. Smart capital usually anticipates this in advance. This part of the capital belongs to the funds that dominate market behavior, while most retail investors cannot dominate the market. Therefore, we only need to wait for the true exhaustion point before paying attention to market signals; this is also part of the daily replay summary—when the decline stops, when the market starts. Friends who watch replays every day generally understand.
(1) Market stop signal
Regarding the market stop signal, there are several rounds of down cycles every year. In terms of observing the market stop signal, we need to look at the strength of the recovery; that is, after a short-term ice point appears, or if there are continuous ice points, how the market signals on the second day and the third day, pulling out a small positive line for recovery, may be a continuation of the downtrend. Pulling out two small positive lines for recovery can be considered true recovery, or a combination of multiple upward trends. Note, the trend must be upward, not downward; this is what we commonly call the market has stopped falling.

Looking back at the market, this round was the market stop on March 24, pulling out two positive lines. The new direction emphasized daily is innovative drugs. Including on Wednesday evening, the core operations to be selected had already been chosen, for example, Meinuo Hua was also promoted to the fourth board on Friday. This was inferred from the market stop signals to deduce the strongest core of the new direction.

Also, the recent main rise in electricity direction was also initiated after the sharp decline on February 13, and after the holiday, the market moved out of recovery to continue the resonant direction, such as YN Holdings.

Going back further, for example, on November 24, the market stopped falling, with many upward trend K-line combinations. The strongest direction initiated at the same time was commercial aerospace, and I believe everyone has reviewed Aerospace Development.

Going back further, it was the market stop on October 20 that initiated the Taiwan Strait cycle, with subsequent Pingtan Development and He Fu China being strong stocks.

By citing the above three examples, everyone can feel that when the market starts a cycle, it must initiate a main rise only after extreme declines have stopped. The sentiment tells the market that this position has stopped falling and is about to begin an upward channel. Once the market gradually starts to recover, it becomes easy for capital to initiate a new cycle of speculation.

(2) The leaders’ prices lead the market
From this perspective, we must look at which core stocks resist declines during downturns. In last week’s weekend replay, I talked about the aesthetics of leading stocks in the quantitative era, and one very important statement is that they must crawl out from the pile of dead bodies. This means that when the market is falling, this type of stock often cannot be killed, and it is very likely to have extremely high strength while the market is declining, or during the market’s decline, it still achieves consecutive boards, or hits limit up. Once the market warms up, it leads the sector to initiate a main rise.
For example, YN Holdings, initiated on February 11, while the market fell on February 13, still achieved consecutive boards, and then broke through the pressure after the holiday to initiate the main rise in electricity.

On March 16, the market reversed downward, starting a down cycle, while Huadian Liaoning hit limit up, and this was also the point when YN Holdings was retreating. At that time, it was emphasized that it was the second wave of leading stocks, which ultimately formed the second wave leader, perfectly validating personal predictions!

Looking back at each stage, it seems that the leaders are always like this, the sentiment of the leaders must lead the market, and lead the market. True leaders cross from down cycles to up cycles; this is the true crossing. The previous leaders, whether Aerospace Development, Pingtan, or He Fu, are all the same; true leaders cannot be killed.

II. The endpoint of an uptrend exhaustion
As the name implies, it means that it has stopped rising, and the main rise has come to an end. A more obvious sign is that previous leaders hit limit down. If the thematic imagination space is large and the capacity is sufficient, at this time, the leaders hitting limit down does not necessarily represent the end of the scenario. Just like the previous commercial aerospace, including this round of YN Holdings, the thematic capacity is large enough and the imagination space is very broad. When the leader hits limit down, there is often a second wave. If market sentiment supports, there can often be a third wave. However, the signal for the end remains unchanged at the beginning; the second and third waves are all given by market expectations. Our judgment during the trading must determine whether the leader has been pressed to limit down and whether subsequent second and third waves of leaders also hit limit down. Once this signal appears, it can basically be judged that the market has ended. At this time, experts usually rest, while some experts choose to switch to a new direction. When a whale falls, everything is born; I believe it is not difficult to understand.
(1) The anchoring point of thematic leaders
In this short-term round of speculative cycles, when YN Holdings hit limit down, the next day Huadian Liaoning hit limit up. Essentially, this is a manifestation of the continuation of speculation; the market here believes that speculation has not ended. However, considering the market environment factors, while the loss effect is amplifying, experts still need to be cautious and cannot subjectively judge whether there will be a second wave. They can only wait for the stop signal. If a second wave appears later, and both the first and second waves of leaders are in limit down, then at this point, we cannot judge the signal for the third wave; we must think more about whether this is the endpoint of the market.

Looking back at previous speculative cycles, the stage of new and old alternation, such as on November 21, while the market was falling, it also represented the end of the Taiwan Strait cycle. At the same time, Pingtan Development hit consecutive limit downs, while the new cycle belongs to commercial aerospace, which is what was emphasized earlier, when a whale falls, everything is born.

Big Picture:
The big picture is a feeling; perhaps sometimes it is not clear, but try to let yourself stand at a higher height to view the entire market. Once understood, it will be immensely beneficial. The big picture is within the realm of “Dao,” so try to cultivate yourself to view the entire market from a higher perspective.
The big picture is a comprehensive factor, only participating in operations where opportunities exceed risks. When policies, funds, technology, information, and other aspects are favorable, it is the time to heavily invest to seek profits, cycling in a way that continuously compounds.
We are followers of the market; short-term investors must always pay attention to market dynamics. For interpreting information, one must have their own judgment; this judgment does not come from reading but from continuous summarization over time, which is what we commonly refer to as the big picture.
Information announcements, like technology, are one of the decision-making considerations. If your understanding of the market is not deep enough, just drilling into these is futile. The big picture encompasses policies, sentiment, technology, capital, and fundamentals, which complement each other!

Conclusion:
Grasping cycles is essentially a game of opening positions and profit-loss ratios.
Can this trade allow you to achieve a profit? How much profit space is there? If there is a loss, how much loss space is there? This calculation needs to be precise. When the market is in downtrend exhaustion, think more about which stock is unavoidable in the market at this time; this is also one of the stocks that must be considered for short-term trading. Just like on March 20, I shared Huadian Liaoning, which had six out of seven trading days of decline. If the market is to undergo recovery next week, which stock is unavoidable today is clear: only Huadian Liaoning. Therefore, at this position, one dares to enter the market during extreme panic, ultimately also successfully becoming the market leader. Short-term trading has never relied on frequent operations, chasing highs and selling lows to seek profits, nor is it simply betting on market direction, but accurately grasping market cycle nodes through precise calculations of the profit-loss ratio before each position opening, constructing a stable profit trading framework. Many short-term traders fall into the trap of losses, not because they cannot understand the market direction, but because they mistakenly take cyclical fluctuations as trends, ignoring the core measure of profit-loss ratio, ultimately exhausting their capital in small gains and large losses. To do well in short-term trading, one must first see through the underlying logic of cycles and profit-loss ratios, turning every trade into a high win rate, high profit-loss ratio deterministic game!

I hope other friends who recognize me can like and support me more, to make the article data look good and attract more fans to follow, this is my motivation for continuous updates! It is also my motivation for sharing live trading! After reaching 10,000 fans, I will apply for live streaming. Here, from a bird’s eye view, one can gain insights into the laws of short-term trading; anyone can become a short-term trading expert!
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At the same time, I also thank the friends who cheer me on!
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Vita Ice Fan Group Motto: (1) Heavy positions, core, certainty!**
(2) Steady yet thrilling!
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Welcome to all passing friends to follow!**