BTC breaks 66,000 again: Will March close with its sixth monthly bearish candle?

As of March 28, 2026, the current price of BTC is approximately $66,386, with an intraday low of $65,552, having confirmed a drop below $66,000 once again. If it does not reclaim this critical level before March 31, BTC is likely to close the March monthly line in the red; this would mark its sixth consecutive monthly decline, tying the record for the longest streak of monthly declines in history— the last similar situation occurred during the tail end of the bear market from August 2018 to January 2019.

Let me state my core judgment: The probability of closing in the red this month is clearly increasing. The reason is not simply a matter of “technical deterioration,” but rather that behind this decline, a relatively complete resonance chain has formed: macroeconomic risks rising, ETF funds flowing out again, options expirations amplifying volatility, and market sentiment entering extreme fear. This indicates that the current BTC situation is not just a “correction within the cryptocurrency circle,” but is being repriced by a broader risk asset environment.

The first layer of pressure comes from the macro environment. Recently, the market has re-entered a risk-off mode, with the Middle East situation fluctuating, oil prices rising, and U.S. Treasury yields continuing to rise. On March 27, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.433%, reaching a high not seen since last summer; at the same time, the VIX “fear index” has approached and even surpassed 30, and the Nasdaq has entered a technical adjustment zone. In this environment, funds will naturally compress the valuations of high-volatility assets. Even if the long-term logic for BTC remains unchanged, it is difficult for it to stand apart in the short term.

The second layer of pressure comes from spot funding flows. The ability of BTC to stabilize this round is determined not just by retail sentiment, but more importantly by the creation and redemption of U.S. spot ETFs. Data shows that on March 26, approximately $171.3 million flowed out of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and on March 27, a further outflow of about $225.5 million occurred. The significant outflows over two consecutive days indicate that the previous corrective buying pressure was not strong enough, and institutional funds have chosen to reduce positions and observe in the face of macro uncertainty. For BTC, such funding signals are often more critical than social media sentiment.

The third layer of pressure comes from derivatives. March 27 coincided with the expiration of the largest Bitcoin options this year, with a nominal size of about $14 billion. The expiration of large options tends to amplify short-term volatility, and against a backdrop of weak spot prices and bearish macro conditions, this expiration effect is more likely to evolve into a “searching for liquidity downwards” trend. On that day, the entire market saw more than $440 million in forced liquidations, primarily affecting long positions, indicating that the market is not experiencing an orderly retreat but is being passively deleveraged. The most notable characteristic of passive deleveraging is that declines often occur not because the fundamentals suddenly worsen, but because the position structure itself becomes imbalanced.

So, will March close in the red? The most critical factor right now is not sentiment, but the monthly closing price. A key threshold that the market is closely monitoring is around $68,600, specifically the closing area for February 28. In other words, if BTC cannot reclaim this level before the end of the month, March will likely close in the red; and if it does close in the red, it will form six consecutive red candles. Based on the current price of approximately $66,386, BTC needs to rebound over 3% in the last few trading days and hold that level effectively; this is not entirely impossible in the current macro, funding, and derivatives environment, but the difficulty is evidently significant.

What many people are most concerned about now is not whether “March will close in the red,” but—where is the real bottom? My view is: the bottom is not a single point, but a range and a “confirmation process.” If we only guess an absolute price point based on price, we are likely to be proven wrong multiple times along the way. What really matters is whether the bottom has “triple confirmation” from funds, structure, and sentiment: First, ETF outflows clearly converge or even turn positive; second, BTC must at least reclaim $68,600 and further challenge the resistance zone of $70,000–$72,000; third, macro factors like oil prices, yields, and stock market fear must simultaneously ease. If any one condition is missing, it feels more like a rebound rather than a reversal.

If we only discuss the “bottom range” instead of the “exact bottom point,” I think we can now view it in three layers. The first layer is the range of $65,000–$66,000. This is a level that has just been breached and repeatedly tested over the last couple of days, and it is also a region of high liquidity concentration; CoinDesk pointed out that the current heatmap shows a significant liquidity cluster near $66,000, meaning this area will first become the primary battleground for bulls and bears. As long as this level can be quickly reclaimed and held, the market still has a chance to define this decline as “end-of-month capitulation + funding disturbance.”

The second layer is the $60,000–$62,000 range. This does not mean BTC will necessarily go there, but rather that—if the $65,000 level is lost and not reclaimed for an extended period, while ETFs continue to flow out and the macro environment continues to deteriorate, the market will easily seek a deeper level of “panic washout bottom.” CoinDesk mentioned this week that the recent price structure resembles the previous move that pushed BTC down to around $60,000; earlier in early February, CoinDesk also mentioned that analysts regarded the 200-day moving average around $58,000–$60,000 as an important support observation zone. This means that the $60,000 range is very likely to be a candidate for the true “emotional clearing level” in this round.

However, I do not advocate viewing the market too pessimistically. Because unlike 2022, CoinDesk also emphasized this week that BTC in 2026 is not a completely unanchored bear market; stronger support and accumulation have already built up in the $50,000–$70,000 range. This means that even if there is another leg down, the market is more likely to be constructing a more complex and tedious mid-term bottom rather than unconditionally returning to a completely uncontrolled one-sided collapse. In other words, it feels more like “searching for a bottom” rather than “losing the bottom.”

From the current standpoint, I would summarize this round of market activity as follows: BTC is transitioning from “high-level correction” to “mid-term bottom contention.” The most realistic short-term judgment is that the probability of continuing to close in the red in March is high; while the true bottom may not have appeared yet, it is unlikely to be far off. The most ideal scenario for bulls is to reclaim $68,600 before the end of the month and quickly return above $70,000 in early April, defining this drop below $66,000 as a “false breakdown.” The most ideal scenario for bears is to establish six consecutive red monthly candles, then further push the price down towards $60,000–$62,000 to complete a true panic washout. Which side prevails is not about slogans but rather about ETF funding flows + macro risk appetite + the speed of reclaiming key price levels.

Finally, here’s a more straightforward conclusion: We are one step away from “true confirmation of the major bottom,” but very close to “beginning to seriously observe the bottom range.” If you ask me where it looks most like a bottom, I would answer: first, look at whether there is a quick recovery capability at the $65,000 level; if not, then see if there is a real surge of panic and funding inflow in the $60,000–$62,000 range. The true bottom is never what everyone shouts, but rather something that the market walks out of after washing out the most pessimistic participants.