Qin's Jinsheng: Gold Price Fluctuations Do Not Persist - Comprehensive Analysis of Market Trends and Trading Recommendations

On March 24, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to strike Iran’s energy facilities over the weekend, triggering market panic, causing oil prices to soar, the dollar to strengthen, and spot gold to plummet over 8.7%, hitting a low of $4099 per ounce. Trump then announced a five-day delay in the strike, leading oil prices to crash over 10%, the dollar to retreat, and gold prices to dramatically rebound, ultimately settling around $4406.64 per ounce, with the futures gold closing price at $4407.30. On March 24 (Tuesday), during the Asian market’s early session, spot gold fluctuated slightly upward, dipping to $4360 per ounce before recovering, currently up 0.6%, trading around $4430 per ounce.

Market interpretation: The interrelationship between gold, oil, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields has reached an unprecedented level of tightness. The “deep V” movement of gold perfectly illustrates its dual attributes in the current macro environment. When the market’s focus is on direct safe-haven demand due to geopolitical conflicts, gold will rise; but when the focus shifts to the “inflation-rate hike” logic triggered by the conflict, gold will plummet due to rising interest rates. Monday’s market was an extreme manifestation of the latter logic, which partially corrected with the former logic following Trump’s remarks. This “roller coaster” market has also sounded the alarm for investors: in extreme market conditions driven by a single event, any position appears precarious. A single social media post by Trump is enough to render all technical analysis and fundamental predictions ineffective.

Technical analysis: The most prominent feature of gold currently is the lack of sustained moves in either direction and intense bull-bear contention, with neither a clear upward trend nor a sustained downward pattern, remaining in a phase of volatile trading following a sharp decline. Short-term oversold recovery and bearish suppression alternate, with rebounds struggling to sustain upward momentum, and pullbacks not breaking downward, primarily due to the mutual checks and balances between bulls and bears. Key signals need to be awaited to clarify direction, with particular attention to the $4400 level and the $4090 support’s gains and losses.

On the daily level, there was a rebound after a sharp drop but no effective breakout formed, with candlesticks reflecting a volatile consolidation pattern, lacking sustained sequences of either negative or positive candles. The bearish arrangement of moving averages has eased somewhat but remains a pressure point, with gold prices oscillating within the moving average range, highlighting the hesitation of bulls and bears; on the four-hour level, the price action shows a “sharp drop-rebound-pullback” tug-of-war, breaking the previous stepwise decline. After a decrease in the MACD green bars, there are slight signs of a volume uptick, while the KDJ indicator, after turning up in the oversold zone, has not maintained upward momentum, indicating insufficient short-term strength, with frequent switching between gains and losses; the hourly line shows the most evident behavior, rapidly falling back after a rebound and quickly stabilizing after a pullback, with no sustained directional movement. The MACD indicator oscillates repeatedly below the zero line, with green and red bars alternating, failing to form an effective trend resonance, perfectly aligning with the short-term characteristic of “gains and losses not continuing.”

In the short term, gold is expected to continue maintaining a volatile tug-of-war, and the pattern of gains and losses not continuing is unlikely to change quickly, likely oscillating within the $4090-$4450 range. After a rebound, it is prone to falling back, and after a pullback, it stabilizes easily, making it difficult to form a sustained directional trend; the mid-term trend still needs to focus on core driving factors—Federal Reserve policy (convergence of rate cut expectations, maintenance of high rates), geopolitical situations (ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts but the safe-haven logic being suppressed by rate logic), and capital flows, likely continuing high volatility oscillations without a clear unilateral direction. It will be necessary to wait for these core factors to show clear changes or for key levels to break before a new trend opens; in the long term, the core logic of global central banks purchasing gold and de-dollarization remains unchanged, still providing long-term support for gold, but the short-term oscillation pattern of gains and losses not continuing will continue to consume both bullish and bearish momentum, with the long-term trend needing confirmation after the oscillation ends.

Support at $4090-$4100; resistance at $4470-$4500 (previous rebound highs, strong pressure), with frequent switching of gains and losses in the short term, a “rebound inducing bullish sentiment” or “pullback inducing bearish sentiment” trend may occur, requiring vigilance against false signals; if the $4090 support is breached or $4492 resistance is broken, it may disrupt the current oscillation pattern and trigger a unilateral market; short positions can be lightly established based on $4400-$4450 resistance, timely entering after a rebound meets resistance, with stop-loss above $4470, avoiding blind shorting; long positions can be lightly established in the $4100-$4150 range based on support, entering after a pullback stabilizes, with stop-loss below $4090, avoiding blind bottom-fishing; regardless of bullish or bearish positions, quick entries and exits are required, with strict position control to avoid the risk of protracted positions facing gains and losses switching, taking timely profits at resistance, and exiting promptly if the pullback does not break support, avoiding stubborn battles.

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Editor: Chen Ping