I've been pretty much out of the game for the past month. Many brokers reached out asking about market outlooks, but my answer was always the same. "This is a trading ban zone." Currently, I see the market facing two major crises.

The first is that AI agents are rapidly eroding the jobs of ordinary knowledge workers in the U.S., potentially triggering a deflationary collapse. The second is that shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics could fundamentally shake the dollar's dominance. These two factors intertwine, making market uncertainty extremely high.

The scenarios I see fall into three main categories.

The first is a return to the current state scenario. Suppose the war stops and things go back to how they were. Even then, structural unemployment caused by AI will continue. The U.S. economy relies 70% on consumption, and if knowledge workers can't pay their loans, banks will essentially go bankrupt. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve will have to unleash massive liquidity. In this case, Bitcoin might see a slight rebound, but without a clear signal of Fed liquidity injection, significant gains are unlikely.

The second scenario is more intriguing. What if the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blockaded, and certain countries start paying tolls only in yuan or gold? This would mean the end of the petrodollar. Countries would sell dollar assets to buy gold, then convert that gold into yuan. Already, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries have decreased by a net $63 billion since the war began. At the same time, U.S. gold exports have increased by 342% year-over-year. This signals a clear flow of capital moving away from the dollar. Just as the pound sterling ceded its place to the dollar in the early 20th century, the dollar could face the same fate now.

The third is an empire's counterattack scenario. If U.S. forces fully control the Strait and eliminate Iran's threat? In the short term, dollar dominance might be maintained. But this would mean widespread destruction in the Middle East, causing energy and food prices to spike. Eventually, famine and social unrest could erupt, forcing central banks to print money recklessly. In this case, Bitcoin could hold infinite value amid the collapse of fiat currencies, but if individuals can't escape in time, their safety could be at risk.

The only things I feel confident about right now are gold and hype. Everything else is uncertain. The speed at which engineers are being replaced by AI is much faster than expected. A friend from a game development company recently tried out a cutting-edge AI model like Claude and was stunned. He said he could complete a six-month roadmap in just four days. As a result, he decided to lay off 50% of his staff within a few weeks. This isn't an isolated case. Thousands of knowledge workers are losing their jobs every week due to AI.

Consumer credit delinquency rates are already rising. Unemployment insurance averages around $28,000 a year, but the average salary for knowledge workers is between $85,000 and $90k. If this gap isn't closed, defaults on loans will inevitably increase.

Bitcoin really has the potential to outperform all major assets. But first, it will likely decline. Given the poor risk-to-reward ratio in the current environment, I think moving all assets to the highest risk level is unwise. If Bitcoin tests and maintains the $60k level twice, then I’ll be ready to take on investment risks.

My current portfolio is simple. Relying solely on time and compound interest, without leverage. The recent slight rise of Bitcoin compared to software ETFs is encouraging. But I don’t think it’s a sign that structural deflation caused by AI has been overcome yet. For now, I’m only willing to risk on gold and Hyperliquid governance tokens. I believe Hyperliquid could significantly take market share from existing leaders in prediction markets.

In conclusion, amid all this uncertainty, the only thing I can do is wait for clear signals. Until the monetary authorities really start unleashing liquidity. That will be the true beginning of opportunity.