◦ While the volume in global financial markets is declining day by day in parallel with the efforts to end the leap year, the US employment report, which is included in the data calendar this week, is perhaps highly anticipated as the last dem data set of the year. As it will be remembered, after the deficit employment data, which fell to the lowest level of the last 2.5 years, the private sector employment data (ADP) could not meet the expectation yesterday.  

◦ According to the official employment report to be released tomorrow, as it is the first Friday of every month, the headline employment increase in the non-farm sector is expected to be 180 thousand people, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.9%. If the data fails to meet the expectations, we can say that the existing interest rate cut expectations for 2024 will be strengthened. As of this morning, rate cuts are expected to begin in March 2024 and continue throughout the year (125 basis points total).
◦ After the data on the employment market failed to meet the expectations, the US 10-year government bond yield fell to a 3-month low of 4.15% yesterday, while we continue to think that instruments such as EUR and gold, which have been running very fast and tired recently, will continue their upward movements after resting a little. While the ounce price of gold started to rest at the level of 2.025 dollars after sprinting to the level of 2.135 dollars, the EURUSD parity in parallel with Europe, whose inflation is rapidly declining and seems to be the first central bank to cut interest rates, also fell from the 1.10 level it recently tested to 1.0750.
◦ On the other hand, our forecast for oil is coming true due to factors such as the disagreement of OPEC+, which is not as strong as it used to be in directing oil prices, and the fact that the US has a larger slice of the global oil production pie, as well as the expectation that global demand will be weak and the increase in stock levels. As it will be remembered, oil prices, which flared like a straw flame after the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, fell sharply with the expectation that the tension would not spread to the region in general, and came to the shore of the 72 dollar level, which we highlight below from a technical point of view: The barrel price of Brent oil fell by 5% yesterday to the level of 74 dollars, testing the bottom of the last 5 months. By the way, it should be noted that the Bloomberg commodity index fell to the lowest level of the last 2 years as a result of concerns about demand.
◦ U.S. stock markets ended last night with slight declines. On the Asian front this morning, we see that red is the dominant color in a similar way.
◦ While the expectation that the fall in oil prices to the bottom of the last 5 months will reduce inflation-driven pressures provides support to the global bond market, we see that stocks are under some pressure. Japan's Nikkei index fell 1.7%, led by energy and technology stocks. Foreign trade data released in China showed that exports unexpectedly increased in November, but imports also fell unexpectedly. This indicated that demand was weak.  
◦ On the agenda of the financial markets, the weekly data of the CBRT and BRSA, which will be announced today in the light of the recent foreign inflows to Turkey. Abroad, although all eyes are on the US employment report tomorrow, industrial production in Germany, which is seen as the sick man of Europe, and unemployment benefit applications in the USA, as it is every Thursday, can be followed.

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