BTC, ETH point

【Long-term Trend】BTC's current exchange inventory has reached a new low since 2018, indicating limited bearish market supply, and overall on-chain long-term holders continue to buy during the downtrend. With the future impact of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the election, it will continue to drive the second stage of the Bull Market. The overall direction of the Bull Market has not fundamentally changed, and the long-term structure remains bullish. This round of the Bull Market will continue until mid-2025.
The mid-term trend, as shown in Figure 1, is that BTC is still running in a flag-shaped structure of the daily candlestick in the short term. The upper pressure zone of 69500-70000 is also the position where the Bull Market Phase 2 door opens. The lower support is at 51000-52000. I have taught everyone before that the end point of the flag-shaped structure is always a breakthrough upwards. Although the daily candlestick structure is taking a relatively long time, as long as the daily candlestick structure does not break through the lower support when closing, it still looks to break through upwards after completing the consolidation in the future. Once it stabilizes above the upper rail, it will start a one-way pump and begin the altcoin season.
【Short-term Trend】As shown in Chart 2, BTC rebounded strongly after retracing the lower rail on the 5th, and 63000 is a short-term reversal point. In the short term, it must break through and stabilize above longs to continue the rebound and test the upper rail's pressure at 69500-70000. Otherwise, there needs to be a retreat and correction to effectively release the bearish volume before counterattacking again. 63000 is the Fibonacci 61.8%, MA120 moving average, and the mid-rail of the daily candlestick Bollinger Band, which presents significant pressure. Therefore, I recently reminded everyone to engage in swing trading for profit and reduce position long term Spot holdings at the high level of 62500-63500. This way, we can adopt a strategy for Spot that allows us to attack when necessary and defend when needed, thereby avoiding profit being given back in the event of a retreat. There are two options for re-entry: 1. If BTC breaks through and stabilizes at 63000 to form a reversal signal, we get on board; 2. If BTC retraces to the support after a downtrend, we get on board.
【Intraday Trends】As shown in Figure 3, BTC rebounded yesterday but was resisted and fell back. There was a rapid fall in the night, breaking the yellow trend line support. After a fall below the trend line, there is often a pullback action. Today, BTC first tested the 57500 support and rebounded. In the evening, it followed the position of the yellow trend line between 60000-61000. Stabilizing above indicates that the short-term sideways fall is complete. We will look for an opportunity to get on board. If the rebound cannot stabilize above the yellow line in the evening, we will still look for a retreat. Once the 57500 support below is broken, we will look at the 56000/54000 support. ETH showed a stronger trend today, with a 30-minute double needle bottoming pattern. In the evening, it followed the position of the yellow trend line between 2700-2720. After stabilizing above, long positions will continue to rebound to 2800-2850. The reversal point is at 3000. If it cannot break through and return to the yellow trend line tonight, there will be a second retracement in the future. The support below is 2520, and if it breaks, it will look at the 2300/2400 support position. The ETH Bull Market target remains unchanged.