Perspective: BTC's Last 'Grassroots' Cycle: The Value and Price of BTC

In the fourth quarter of 2024, a new round of Bull Market was launched. BTC is not only the technological fuel of the macroeconomy, but also the basic coin of the digital age. Under the improvement of regulations, this may be the last huge rise cycle of BTC, and it is also the beginning of the industry reshuffle. This article originated from Tony Ling, pen name Tatsuno, and was compiled, compiled and written by PANews. (Synopsis: BTC supply crunch, exchange balance outflow sharply sounded "short squeeze alarm" BTC broke through $102,000 again) (Background supplement: VanEck 2025 Top Ten Predictions: BTC reaches a mid-term peak in Q1 next year, SolanaSpot ETF is approved, and DeFi reaches a new high. Standing at the moment of writing, 2024Q4, this is the beginning of a new round of Bull Market. The value of BTC is in the macro field, simulating bonds and stocks from the history of finance, which is the "fuel" for a new round of human science and technology development; The meso field is the commodity coin and index of the digital world that human beings will inevitably enter in the future; In the micro field, a new round of legal supervision has landed and coinCompliance, thereby siphon the world's private investment demand. This is perhaps the last "reckless" cycle to belong to the crypto industry, and the last mega cycle in which BTC has huge beta gains. This means that after this cycle, the beta of BTC will drop significantly, but it does not mean that the broad token issuance market will not have a hundredfold alpha chance. The top of this round of BTC Bull Market will appear in Q4 2025, with a high of $16-220,000. Before that, excluding the "first wave" that has now occurred, there are two waves of the significant medium-term trend of the Bull Market. Now is 1999 in the Internet era, which means that after the peak of the Bull Market in the next 12-18 months, the crypto industry will usher in a long winter like the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000-2001. Of course, this is also an opportunity for industry reshuffle. I'm looking forward to it. When I feel that Bull Market is coming, that's when the article is at its highest. About 4 years ago, at the beginning of the last cycle of Bull Market, I wrote "2021 digital coin, how should we invest?" 》。 When we talk about the entire digital coin industry, it is inevitable to mention the value and price of BTC first. If you already believe in the value of BTC, you may wish to skip directly to the fifth part, the expectation of BTC's future price movements. First, the value of BTC, from the industrial dimension, I want to divide into three levels: macro, meso and micro. From a macro point of view, BTC represents the hedging expectation of the entire human financial market, and the third "financial medium" that can be capitalized after bonds and stocks in human history; In the medium term, BTC is the "digital age" that mankind will inevitably enter in the future, that is, the best "index" of web3 world output value; At the micro level, BTC is gradually sound in terms of compliance regulation, which will attract a lot of "traditional old money" in mainstream countries such as the United States. In third world countries, it siphon private investment needs that cannot be met locally. At the macro level, we regard BTC as an epoch-making asset in the history of human finance, so the most important thing is to understand the changes in financial history. "Digital Coins in 2021, How Should We Invest?" One of the Four Parts", from the perspective of the history of science and technology, the status of digital goods coin is corrected. Behind each technological revolution, important financial infrastructure and a new financial "medium" have emerged. Behind the finance, the situation has changed. Standing in the present may be the most confusing moment in the global political and economic situation in the past three decades, and it is also the moment when the TradFi order is most fragile and most likely to undergo a major reshuffle. Now I can't trace whether there were financial venues similar to the London Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange when the famous financial bubbles such as "Dutch Tulips" appeared hundreds of years ago, or whether Dutch hawkers were accustomed to offline trading, but the hype did not establish rules and order, so that the bubble finally came to naught. However, in the long course of history, every scientific and technological innovation remembered by mankind has been accompanied by the change of financial formalization, and the change of financial formalization is an inevitable product of the change of the current situation. These are cause and effect of each other, but complement each other, and finally write a strong stroke in human history. I also have no way of predicting that if the Civil War had not brought about a drastic change in the social pattern of the United States, reshaping the social class and encouraging scientific and technological innovation to enter industry, the second industrial revolution would have begun in Britain, but eventually carried forward in the United States and became a milestone. At the same time, I have a more radical view: when everyone is talking about the economic malaise, about finding a viable business model – business itself, why do you need a business model, has the word "business model" itself lost its meaning? There is more to me thinking about here, which is a little more complicated, and I will not repeat it here, but will expand on it as the most important part of my future article, "The Philosophical Essays on Business and Investment". (Related reading: "One of the four parts of encryption capital: Token issuance, the new formalization of financing") [Excerpt: Discussing business models in the contemporary business environment and financial environment, behind which context, refers to the general path developed by commercial entities with "corporate system" as the mainstream in the past hundred years: a complete system of stock pricing in the form of profit *PE by expanding the market scale, increasing the number of employees, and finally going public. This path may not be established in the future. Of the amount of value owned by "social capital" (or "private economy") today, equity enterprises may account for 95%, and listed companies anchored by stocks account for most of the capital value. But in the future, these amounts of value may be more in "business" (why limited partnerships can't) and "tokens" (foundations). Spend more time talking about BTC's industry meso arguments. At the end of my book in 2021, the first of the eight predictions mentioned that BTC is unbeatable. Referring to the postscript four of my book "Unlocking New Passwords – From Block Chain to Digital Coin" – From the perspective of the technology industry, web3 is an inevitable trend in the future, and BTC is the core asset of the entire web3 world, or economically, it should be called "currency". In ancient times of barter, gold was the most common "currency", and after the development of the modern state system and financial system, the national coin was the most common "currency". In the future, with the advent of the digital age, in the virtual space of the Metaverse, all life in the digital world needs a new "currency". Therefore, some people hold on to "how is it a token that you invested", which is meaningless. Block chain and crypto need "+", just like now when people ask you what track to invest in, you say "I want to invest in equity companies" and "I want to invest in an Internet company". Web3 as a special industry, crypto as a new market means and financial medium, has been gradually combined with other industries - Block chain + AI=DeAI, Block chain + finance = Defi, Block chain + entertainment / art = NFT+metaverse, Block chain + scientific research = Desci,...