#加密市场观察 Behind the Market Rebound—A Comprehensive Analysis of the Crypto Landscape
I. Overall Market Situation: Hidden Worries Amid the Rebound
From the data, the market appears to be recovering from Monday’s low. Bitcoin has rebounded over 8% from $86,447, climbing back above $93,000; Ethereum has shown even greater resilience, surging over 13% from its $2,803 low. This has undoubtedly injected a dose of confidence into the recently sluggish market.
Macro Perspective: Liquidity Expectations and Risk Sentiment Tug-of-War
Policy Uncertainty Remains: Although there are expectations for the end of QT, Bitcoin spot ETFs recently saw a net outflow of about $900 million, intensifying sell-off pressure and reminiscent of the Q1 2022 adjustment triggered by liquidity tightening.
Global Risk Sentiment Linkage: The unwinding of yen carry trades has set off a chain reaction, with the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) potential rate hikes further amplifying market volatility. The correlation between crypto assets and tech stocks has risen above 0.85, indicating that the crypto market struggles to remain unaffected when global risk appetite weakens.
Diverging Institutional Behavior: On one hand, asset management giant Vanguard has sent more open signals toward crypto assets, hinting at a possible future return of institutional funds. On the other, MicroStrategy—the listed company known for aggressive Bitcoin purchases—has significantly scaled back its buying since its 2024 peak, reflecting a short-term cooling in some corporate fund allocations.
II. Technical Analysis: Critical Decisions After an Oversold Rebound
Bitcoin (BTC):
Position and Pattern: The price is testing the key Fibonacci retracement level (0.618) near $98,000. Currently, the 14-day RSI is at a neutral 45—neither overbought nor oversold—leaving room for the next move. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, forming a “golden cross” and signaling positive short-term momentum.
Key Levels: The $90,000 level (50-day MA) is an important short-term support, while $98,900 (weekly high) forms direct resistance. If it fails to break above $95,000, historical data suggests a higher probability of downside.
Market Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recovered from its lows to 35 (fear zone), indicating some sentiment repair, but still far from optimism.
Ethereum (ETH):
Strong Performance: ETH has successfully broken above $3,100 (200-day MA), clearly outperforming BTC. This is driven both by expectations of Layer 2 network upgrades and signs of capital rotation into quality altcoins.
Indicator Signals: The Stochastic has reached 75, nearing the overbought zone, so a technical pullback may be imminent in the short term. Trading volume has expanded during the rebound, providing momentum for the rise. Key support is at $3,000, with resistance at $3,300.
Overall View: The ETH/BTC pair has risen to 0.034, further confirming that an “altcoin rotation” may be underway. However, the overall technical structure still shows a rebound rather than a reversal. If Bitcoin loses the key $90,000 support, it could trigger a new round of broad-based selling.
Technical Conclusion:
Short-term trends are leaning optimistic, offering trading opportunities, but a reversal of the medium-term trend will require more time and further confirmation.
III. Key Data Interpretation:
The True Picture of Market’s Underlying Momentum
Data doesn’t lie—it reveals the real dynamics beneath surface volatility.
Signs of Liquidity Tightening: Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has plunged 87%. This is more than just a number; it directly reflects a stage of liquidity tightening and some investors cashing out profits. High volatility with low liquidity often signals that the market remains in a fragile balance.
Divergence in Participant Behavior:
Whales (Large Holders): On-chain data shows that “whale” addresses holding large amounts of Bitcoin are slowing their accumulation, even moving to a wait-and-see stance.
Retail: Recent buying seems to be led more by retail capital, which is more emotional and prone to panic selling.
Institutions and ETH: Unlike BTC, institutional funds appear to be actively accumulating Ethereum through ETFs and other channels. The staking rate has risen to 25%, enhancing network security but also introducing some concentration risk.
ETF Flows—A Key Short-Term Variable: Since December, net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs have been a major drag on market sentiment. A reversal in fund flows will be the most critical indicator for a market confidence comeback.
Long-Term Holding Optimism:
On a positive note, Glassnode data shows declining Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, indicating more investors are choosing to “HODL.” Long-term conviction remains strong despite short-term volatility.
Data-Based Conclusion:
The market’s endogenous structure shows short-term vulnerability, but the foundation for long-term holding is strengthening, and institutions continue to lay out positions in assets like Ethereum.
IV. Policy and Industry Trends:
The Long Road to Clarity
The policy environment is transitioning from vague to clear, laying the institutional foundation for the industry’s long-term growth.
US Leads Regulatory Progress: From requiring exchanges to register and implement strict anti-money laundering (AML) rules, to the FDIC clarifying processes for banks engaging in crypto, the US regulatory framework is taking shape. The launch of stablecoin and custody pilots by Cb and major US banks marks a substantive stage in the integration of traditional finance and crypto.
Global Exploration and Follow-Up: The UK FCA has launched a stablecoin sandbox, and the EU continues to refine tax and reporting rules under its MiCA framework. Major jurisdictions worldwide are exploring how to embrace financial innovation while managing risk.
Short-Term Impact: Despite a generally positive long-term policy outlook, any short-term news about regulatory tightening or risk warnings can be amplified by fragile market sentiment, causing unnecessary volatility.
Policy Conclusion:
Clearer regulation is an irreversible long-term trend and will eventually attract large-scale compliant capital, but patience is needed to navigate volatility during the policy adjustment period.
V. Outlook and Prospects
Finding Certainty Amid Uncertainty
Year-end volatility is a market norm and a stress test for all participants. We believe every deep correction accumulates strength for a more powerful next rally. With ongoing policy improvement, increasing institutional adoption, and technological upgrades, the long-term value proposition of crypto assets remains robust.
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