【Chain Journal】The latest December non-farm employment data has been released, and the conclusions are somewhat complex—a mixed picture. The US job market is clearly slowing down, with several indicators including new job creation, job opening rates, and wage growth all retreating. However, the unemployment rate has shown a pleasant surprise, declining slightly.
This outcome provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to wait and see. Based on the reactions in interest rate futures and bond markets, investors have essentially reached a consensus: the Fed will not cut rates in January, and the earliest possibility of rate cuts would be in June.
Here's the issue—there's another variable: the Supreme Court may declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. If this actually happens, what would it mean? Economic expectations could improve, and inflationary pressures would ease, but the fiscal deficit would expand further.
How should we interpret the market impact? Under the dual effects of the Fed not being in a hurry to cut rates in the short term, combined with weakened tariff disruptions, US Treasury bonds will have a difficult time. The long-term elevated levels