#Gate广场五月交易分享
BTC: Will it surge to 80k first and then plunge, or will it first retest support to gather strength before soaring?
Currently, BTC is stuck repeatedly testing the 78k USD level, like a wild bull tethered, staring at the high wall of 80k USD. Every time it raises its head to charge, it’s sharply pushed back. Bulls and bears are fighting fiercely here, with every small rise and fall gripping the crypto community’s heartbeat. The market currently has only two paths: either to aggressively push through 80k USD to lure in longs and then dump, or to pretend to break down, retest support to shake out weak hands, gather strength, and then break through in one go—there’s no third middle ground.
Let’s first look at the first scenario—pushing through 80k USD, luring in longs, then violently dropping. This rally started from 75k USD, gradually rising and squeezing higher, feeding retail traders’ bullish confidence. 80k USD is an integer level with a “milestone” aura, attracting many retail traders and leveraged funds eager for a breakout signal. The main force is likely to stage a “false breakout”: volume surges past 80k USD, even reaching 81,000–82k USD, instantly igniting a frenzy across the internet. Retail traders chase the high, leverage traders go all-in, media hype “72k within reach,” and market sentiment peaks. But just as everyone is fully long and leverage is maxed out, the main force reverses—large spot sell orders combined with chain-reaction liquidations of futures contracts—causing the price to drop like a kite with its string cut, plunging quickly from above 80k USD back down to 75k or even 72k USD. This is a classic “bull trap,” catching retail traders and leveraged funds chasing the high, with liquidation data flooding the screens, panic spreading in the market. Meanwhile, the main force cashes out at the top, waiting to buy back at lower levels, completing a perfect harvest.
Now, let’s consider the second scenario—retreat to shake out weak hands, gather strength, then directly surge past 80k USD. Currently, BTC has been trading sideways around 78k USD for days, with volume continuously shrinking. Bulls and bears are in a stalemate. This isn’t exhaustion of momentum but a deliberate “shakeout” by the main force. Before the 80k USD level, there’s a buildup of profit-taking and trapped positions. The main force can’t charge forward with these burdens; they will likely fake a fall—breaking below 77k USD support, even testing the critical low of 75k USD. Indicators weaken, moving averages turn bearish, creating an illusion of a top and retreat. At this point, indecisive retail traders panic and sell, short-term profit takers follow suit, and leveraged shorts seize the opportunity to enter. Meanwhile, the main force quietly accumulates at lower levels during the retest, absorbing cheap chips. After the shakeout, with all weak hands cleared and selling pressure released, the main force can then leverage ETF capital inflows and market optimism to push higher. Without heavy selling resistance, BTC will break free like a wild horse, surging past 80k USD, possibly aiming for 85k USD, and starting a new upward trend.
Looking at the current market, the probability of a retest and then a rally is higher. The 78k USD options are heavily pinned, and resistance above 80k USD is strong. A direct push would only be met with sharp bearish suppression, which is unwise. The main force rarely fights unprepared battles; sideways consolidation at high levels is a setup for a shakeout—clearing weak hands and digesting selling pressure to pave the way for future breakthroughs. Once support is established, institutional funds (like BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) continuously flowing into spot markets will become the strongest backing. Coupled with bullish market sentiment, breaking 80k USD will be a matter of time.
Ultimately, the crypto market has always been “counter-human,” either causing late buyers to get liquidated or leaving short-sellers on the sidelines. Currently, BTC stands at a crossroads: 80k USD is not the end but the starting point of a new game—retreating to gather strength for a better rise, surging higher to harvest profits more fiercely. Understanding the main force’s tactics is key to standing firm in this game of ups and downs, avoiding emotional swings, and not getting caught and liquidated.
