Yang Guang bit | June 9 $ETH Precise Strategy Full Trend Control Today's Ideas Entry Timing Enter in batches within the 1680-1700 range, add positions in the 1710-1720 range Stop Loss Setting Stop loss: above 1740 Tiered Take Profit First target: 1630-1640 Second target: 1600-1610 Third target: 1570-1580 Market Logic Breakdown News (Authoritative sources: Xinhua News Agency, Cailian Press, as of June 9 11:40) The US-Iran situation has temporarily cooled down, risk aversion sentiment is quickly fading, and the short-term rebound caused by geopolitical conflicts has completely ended The market has fully priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for the long term, with risk-free returns remaining higher than risk assets, and funds continue to withdraw from the crypto market No substantial positive developments in the Ethereum ecosystem, market sentiment has turned weak again, and rebound selling pressure is heavy Funding Situation Ethereum spot ETF continues to show net outflows, institutions have not heavily accumulated, and the rebound lacks supporting incremental funds Retail longs who chased prices earlier in the derivatives market have been partially liquidated, but there are still many trapped positions, leaving ample room for future liquidations Whale addresses have continued to reduce holdings during the rebound, large sell pressure has not been fully released, and market confidence has not yet recovered $ETH ‌#伊朗袭击以色列

When will Bitcoin’s bottom be reached? Let’s talk simply. In the bear market, over the years and in previous cycles, the bottom hadn’t taken more than 365 days to happen. Today, we’ve reached about 260 days of decline. That means, theoretically, only about 105 days remain. In clearer terms: September could be the end of the story, and maybe even August. But this isn’t just spoken words or random calculations. There are many things that support the same idea: The speed of the decline Trading volumes Monthly indicator saturation Volume movement And dozens of other indicators They all give us the same reading: We are heading toward the bottom in a steady and clear way. In fact, more than 75% of the bear market journey has ended, and what remains is only the final part. Someone might ask: Okay, but how did you know there’s only a little left? The answer is in the volume. Trading volumes gave a whale entry signal about 3 months ago, when Bitcoin touched the $60,000 area. These details are complicated and lengthy, and I won’t get into them too much, but briefly: There’s a clear signal of whale movement on the volume before the last wave, after we’d already passed more than 65% of the decline journey. That’s why, for this current downward wave we’re seeing, it’s the last major wave before entering the bottom range and the accumulation phase. And the expected range for us: Between $50,000 and $40,000. This is the primary bottom range, and within this model we don’t see it going lower than that. So how long will the accumulation last? Here, the answer is unknown. It could drag on, or it could be faster than expected. But the important thing for us at that time is: That the major decline phase will be over, and only the accumulation and the rebound phase will remain. Some people might say: Just like that? A bottom between $50,000 and $40,000? So everyone is going to get rich? Yes, just like that. But not everyone can benefit. Ask yourself: How many people actually have cash to buy? Very, very few. Because most people are stuck at the peaks, their losses are brutal, and there are coins that have fallen more than 90%, and many of them are already effectively over and may never come back. $BTC $ETH

OpenAI secretly goes public, Arthur Hayes warns: Your crypto funds are about to be drained by AI! Are you still waiting for the clone season? Wall Street has already aimed its guns at your pockets. OpenAI has just secretly filed for an IPO with the SEC. SpaceX oversubscribed 2 times. Cerebras' first day of listing surged 68%. Three things, one signal: The era of super AI IPOs is officially beginning. And Arthur Hayes— the man who escaped the top of the bull market and bought at the bottom of the bear market— has just issued a warning: “The three major AI super IPOs will drain too much liquidity, first triggering an AI bubble, then blowing up the crypto market.” Do you think this is alarmist? Look at the data: SpaceX needs 150 billion, only raises 75 billion— everyone is fighting to get in. Once OpenAI opens the floodgates, what will institutional investors do? Cerebras jumps 68% in one day, how FOMO are retail investors? Where does this money come from? From your altcoins. Scenario reconstruction: You are a fund manager on Wall Street. You have 1 billion USD allocated to “high risk, high growth” assets, planning to buy Solana, Arbitrum, a bunch of Layer2s. Now? OpenAI’s IPO roadshow is here. SpaceX’s stock is trading at a 30% premium in the dark pool. Cerebras doubles in three days. What would you do? Dump your altcoins, free up funds, and chase the new AI stocks. This is not a conspiracy, it’s human nature. But do you think AI collapsing will cause funds to flow back into crypto? That’s naive. Hayes’s full logic is: AI IPOs drain liquidity → valuation bubble → bubble bursts → panic selling all risk assets → crypto gets hit along with everything else. In other words, whether AI rises or falls, crypto will take two hits. When it rises, funds are drained away. When it falls, sentiment is dragged down. “AI and crypto are not competitors, they are conjoined twins—one has a fever, the other can’t escape.” So is crypto doomed? Not entirely. There’s an exception: Bitcoin. Note that Hayes talks about “the crypto market,” but what is his biggest holding? Bitcoin. Why? Because when the AI bubble bursts, funds will look for the “last refuge.” Not altcoins, not NFTs, not DeFi blue chips. It’s Bitcoin. AI is a growth narrative, Bitcoin is a survival narrative. When everyone starts panicking, survival > growth. “AI drains the water of speculation, Bitcoin leaves the roots of faith—the water can dry up, but the roots won’t.” So what should you do now? Three heartfelt but honest suggestions: Sell off those “AI concept altcoins”—WLD, AGIX, FET… they will be drained directly by the AI IPO. Institutions would rather buy real OpenAI stocks than your “blockchain + AI” dog coins. Reduce high-leverage altcoin positions—when liquidity tightens, high leverage dies first. Gradually increase your proportion of Bitcoin and stablecoins—when the AI bubble is at its craziest, Bitcoin will fall, but the least; when AI crashes, Bitcoin will be the first to rebound. “During the hottest AI feast, quietly swap your chips for Bitcoin—when the party ends, you’ll find only you still have the wine.” Final prediction: On the first day of OpenAI’s IPO, it will most likely surge. At that time, the crypto market will experience a “bloodsucking decline.” Many will panic sell and chase AI stocks. Then, when AI valuations become ridiculously high and a single bearish candle drops, those chasing the high will be double-killed. And you, holding Bitcoin, will watch them cry with a smile. #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 #比特币回升5% $BTC $ETH