#Weekend Trading Plan
Dear Gate Square community, traders, and long-term investors,
I'm back with our weekend trading plan. The market has bid farewell to the exciting “bubble” phase of 2025, and is now entering the first quarter of 2026—an institutional-driven consolidation cycle. Bitcoin is testing resistance around $75,800, Ethereum is holding around $2,350, and gold (XAU) continues to set new highs near $4,830. In this kind of environment, what matters is discipline—not impatience. Here are the three key questions to focus on this weekend:
1️⃣ Are you betting on a “V-shaped rebound” or a “slow decline”?
Neither a full V nor a typical slow decline. The market is currently in an “institutional grinding” mode. Even though TradingView’s BTCUSD daily technical summary gives a short-term “buy” signal, the weekly and monthly timeframes dominate a “neutral” stance. Open interest is rising, the funding rate is slightly negative, and volume hasn’t confirmed a breakout. Therefore, we’re experiencing the typical “post-bubble correction” after the 2025 highs—since the February lows, a bottom in a range is forming.
My preference is to wait patiently for a rise in liquidity before the correction begins. The supply of (stablecoin) is at an all-time high, and institutional funds are continuing to flow in via ETFs and corporate treasuries. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory uncertainty are still unresolved. Only in cycles where risk appetite suddenly strengthens will you see a V-shaped move; if macroeconomic data weaken, you’ll see a slow decline. I’m between the two scenarios, looking forward to “conditions maturing.” Following the direction of fund flows and the macro environment—and observing how conditions gradually mature—is the safest strategy.
2️⃣ Which assets are on my radar that could break out?
Core long-term portfolio (HODL & Swing)：
BTC & ETH—two pillars. If BTC breaks the 76–78K resistance level, an 85K+ target is realistic. As for ETH, the weekly MACD is forming a golden cross; in the past three golden crosses, the price increase range has been between 74% and 130%.
XRP*—a “once-in-a-decade breakout” is being discussed. The triangle contraction has been completed, a retest has already been done, and the RSI has also issued a bullish crossover signal. The potential for new ATHs may come into view. - SOL & Chainlink (LINK)—SOL looks ready to break through the momentum of its ecosystem, and LINK also seems ready to break out of a gradually narrowing range that it’s been in for months. LINK is in the $8.70–$9.00 range; once it breaks above $10, the target could point to $12–$14.
Intraday trading radar (XAUT, PAXG, Oil/Crude, XAG)：
Gold and silver are still shining brightly. XAUUSD is up 0.85% on the day, at $4,831, while XAGUSD is up 3%, at $80.80. In crude oil, the geopolitical premium is still ongoing—perfect for short-term volatility. Those are my “cash-flow” intraday trading positions. I’ll enter when opportunities appear, and take profits when the targets are hit.
3️⃣ Are there any “black swan” or golden cross patterns to watch out for?
Golden cross:
- The ETH MACD weekly golden cross is very important( past performance shows returns of 74%+).
- For BTC, the fast line of the 12H HP stack is forming higher lows, while the slow line is bending upward—this is a signal of a bullish trend reversal.
Black swan risks( and opportunities)：
- Geopolitics(—Tensions in the Middle East are pushing gold and oil higher).
- Macro surprises(—If expectations of a Fed pivot get disrupted, risk appetite may fall).
- Regulation and ETF fund flows$BTC —could bring positive black swans$ETH .
But for me, the real “black swan” is a sudden pullback rebound after liquidity gets squeezed. That’s why I always keep 20–30% in cash.
My philosophy:
Opportunities in the investment world never end. More important than just buying is being able to say “it’s not time to buy” when you need to—and continue holding cash. That’s a strategy, and sometimes it’s the most powerful one. Follow the flow of funds, read the market, and wait for the right conditions to mature. If you rush, you’ll get nowhere; patience is what brings returns.
Review your weekend trading plan within this framework. Manage risk properly for your positions, and set your stop-loss orders tight enough.
Opportunities are always there.
Which one are you planning to play? Feel free to discuss in the comments.
$SOL
