Analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) believes that altcoins are reenacting a similar scenario to the period before the "altcoin season" of 2021. This time, the signal appears on the chart of the market capitalization ratio of altcoins ( excluding Ethereum and stablecoins) compared to Bitcoin, commonly referred to as "Total3/BTC".
Familiar Structure: From Despair to Acceleration
Kevin likened the current state of the altcoin market to stepping out of a "despair" phase – a time when most investors lose faith and accept losses – to enter an "acceleration" phase in a new cycle. He emphasized that, just like what happened before the altcoin season of 2021, it is the new market structure that emerges and shapes the way forward, while news headlines, reasons, or media stories only come later to reinforce the upward momentum.
According to his analysis, the weekly linear chart of Total3/BTC is showing a familiar scenario: after returning to the accumulation range, the price broke through the support zone in a "capitulation" manner – where many investors were forced to panic sell – and then quickly reclaimed this range. Kevin calls this the "spring phase," a characteristic signal in the Wyckoff model, which was once the starting point for the brilliant altcoin season of 2021.
He believes that this chain of events almost perfectly mirrors what happened during the 2018–2020 period: a long-term foundation formed after many years of accumulation and pessimism, only to eventually explode when the market had nearly given up on altcoins. It is precisely this exhaustion and loss of faith that creates the momentum for a transformative price increase.
Total market capitalization of crypto excluding BTC, ETH, stablecoin to BTC | Source: YouTube## Macroeconomic factors: Necessary conditions to activate
Kevin emphasized that the entire technical scenario can only become a reality if the macro environment allows the market to reprice risk. According to him, the key conditions that need to converge include:
Inflation must continue to decrease or at least remain stable, so that the Fed has room to loosen policy.
The labor market needs to show signs of cooling down, reducing tension, but should not fall into a state of mass collapse.
Economic growth needs to slow down to a "soft" level, just enough to ease inflationary pressures but not too negatively to raise concerns about recession.
In this context, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have a reasonable basis to shift the policy focus towards supporting the labor market, thereby pulling down the 2-year bond yields and boosting expectations for a rate-cutting cycle. At the same time, the Fed may ease the current level of quantitative tightening (QT), even moving towards a neutral balance sheet state or slight expansion, thereby improving risk appetite in the financial markets.
Kevin believes that the next three weeks will be particularly important as a series of key macro data will be released, guiding policy expectations. In particular, the FOMC meeting on September 17 is seen by him as a milestone that could shape the entire outlook for Q4 – a period he refers to as the "decisive moment" for the rotation of capital into altcoin.
Technical Indicator: Symmetry with 2021
On the weekly time frame, Kevin pointed out that a series of technical signals are simultaneously recreating the familiar picture of 2021 — the starting point for the previous active altcoin season. According to him, this synchronization is not merely coincidental, but may reflect an important transitional phase of the market.
One of the prominent signals from Market Cipher is that this indicator has recorded the start of a new buying cycle. The cash flow shown on this tool is moving along a similar trajectory to the "spring" phase of Wyckoff in the previous cycle, suggesting that buying pressure is returning after a long period of dullness. This is seen as the "first shot" signaling the potential revival of altcoin.
Alongside that, the flow of whale money also shows a notable coincidence: it has just formed a bottom at the level that appeared in 2021. This indicates that large investors may have completed the accumulation phase and are ready to shift the landscape, paving the way for a new growth cycle.
Not stopping there, the MACD on the weekly frame has crossed up at exactly the area that previously signaled the start of a strong uptrend. This is an additional factor reinforcing the argument that the altcoin market is precisely repeating the steps of the previous boom phase.
In particular, the Stochastic RSI has surged to a level of 96. Kevin reiterated that in 2021, once this indicator surpassed the threshold of 80 and maintained above it, altcoins almost immediately entered the phase of the most intense acceleration. If this time the Stochastic RSI continues to approach the threshold of 100, the possibility of a strong breakout similar to that of 2021 is entirely plausible.
Logarithmic Perspective: Long-term Support and Divergence
When observing the monthly logarithmic chart of Total3/BTC, Kevin noted that he sees many important technical signals appearing simultaneously. First, he pointed out the existence of a support range lasting for 8 years in the 0.27–0.24 area. This is a price range that has often acted as a "lifeline" for altcoin, helping the market bounce back after strong correction phases.
Along with that, a long-term downtrend line is gradually encountering a "higher low structure" – a sign that selling pressure has weakened and the market may be establishing a reversal foundation. This crossover is considered a key signal, as it implies a change in the supply-demand equilibrium.
Another important factor comes from the clear bullish divergence on the monthly momentum waves of Market Cipher. Kevin emphasizes: "The momentum lows continue to rise while the price still makes lower lows, which is a typical bullish divergence signal at historical support levels." This indicates that the internal strength of the market is improving, even when the external price action remains weak.
Additionally, he also paid special attention to the RSI indicators. The monthly RSI is showing signs of breaking out of the downtrend channel that has restrained altcoin since 2021. At the same time, the monthly stochastic RSI has sharply bounced back in a V-shape from the area near 0, but has not yet reached the threshold of 80. In Kevin's analysis frame, this is a crucial level: only when it surpasses 80 does the market usually enter the strongest acceleration phase. This means that if this signal is confirmed, altcoin may still have an impressive breakout path ahead.
Altcoin Momentum Indicator | Source: YouTube## Double Bottom Pattern and Breakout Signal
One of the factors that Kevin particularly emphasizes is the appearance of the double bottom pattern on the monthly L-MACD indicator. According to him, this structure closely aligns with the period from June to December 2020 – the time when the market completed the bottom formation before altcoins entered a strong explosive phase in early 2021. Kevin calls this a "precise bottom pattern", due to the clear repetition between the two cycles.
He pointed out that the lows established in June and July this year are reflecting the double bottom pattern of 2020. This indicates that the altcoin market may have created a solid foundation, while also reinforcing the belief in the argument that a new growth cycle is forming.
What gives Kevin the most confidence is the rare synchronization between the signals on two major analysis frames. He emphasizes that positive signs are currently appearing simultaneously on both the weekly linear chart and the monthly logarithmic chart. This is something that, according to him, "has never happened in history" – because typically, different time frames will provide out-of-phase signals or rarely match perfectly.
If this scenario continues to be confirmed, Kevin believes that the market capitalization of altcoin could quickly regain market share from Bitcoin, at an even stronger and more decisive pace than the previous altcoin season. In other words, he expects this boom to come faster and stronger, thanks to the resonance between the long-term technical foundation and short-term momentum.
Contact with Ethereum and the rotation capability of altcoin
Although mostly focused on analyzing Total3/BTC – the market capitalization index of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, Kevin still closely relates it to previous forecasts about Ethereum. He has repeatedly emphasized that ETH is in the process of establishing a new peak cycle, based on clear bottom signals appearing simultaneously on important trading pairs like ETH/BTC, ETH/USD, and the Ethereum Dominance index.
According to Kevin, the current developments of altcoin share many similarities with the phase in 2020, when Ethereum was the "leader" for the entire market. At that time, ETH broke out early, acting as a catalyst to activate the flow of capital into the altcoin group, before the entire market accelerated simultaneously.
He emphasized that Total3 is currently showing similar signals. Specifically, this index has had two consecutive months of strong rebounds from an important support zone, recreating the pattern that Ethereum once displayed before a major breakout. With this similarity, Kevin believes that the altcoin market is highly likely preparing to enter a cyclical boom phase, with Ethereum continuing to play the role of "pathfinder" as it did in 2020.
Weak September, explosive Q4?
Although many technical signals are reinforcing a positive outlook, Kevin still does not forget to issue an important warning. He reiterates that September is typically a weak period for the cryptocurrency market, when liquidity decreases and investor sentiment becomes more cautious. According to him, strong momentum may really only emerge when macroeconomic data in Q4 provides clearer confirmation.
"Charts can lead news, but nothing is guaranteed," Kevin emphasized. Currently, what he sees is a maturing platform, with a price range being reclaimed after a phase of capitulation, along with the familiar momentum structure that often appears at the boundary between accumulation and explosion.
He concluded confidently yet cautiously: "If there is any time for that to happen, it is now. Pay special attention to Total3."
At the time of writing, the market capitalization of altcoin (TOTAL3) reached 1.04 trillion USD. With an astonishing coincidence of a series of technical signals, combined with the potential for favorable macro factors appearing in Q4, the scenario of a new "altcoin season" is closer than ever.
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Is the altcoin about to take off? This chart shows a scenario exactly like in 2021.
Analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) believes that altcoins are reenacting a similar scenario to the period before the "altcoin season" of 2021. This time, the signal appears on the chart of the market capitalization ratio of altcoins ( excluding Ethereum and stablecoins) compared to Bitcoin, commonly referred to as "Total3/BTC".
Familiar Structure: From Despair to Acceleration
Kevin likened the current state of the altcoin market to stepping out of a "despair" phase – a time when most investors lose faith and accept losses – to enter an "acceleration" phase in a new cycle. He emphasized that, just like what happened before the altcoin season of 2021, it is the new market structure that emerges and shapes the way forward, while news headlines, reasons, or media stories only come later to reinforce the upward momentum.
According to his analysis, the weekly linear chart of Total3/BTC is showing a familiar scenario: after returning to the accumulation range, the price broke through the support zone in a "capitulation" manner – where many investors were forced to panic sell – and then quickly reclaimed this range. Kevin calls this the "spring phase," a characteristic signal in the Wyckoff model, which was once the starting point for the brilliant altcoin season of 2021.
He believes that this chain of events almost perfectly mirrors what happened during the 2018–2020 period: a long-term foundation formed after many years of accumulation and pessimism, only to eventually explode when the market had nearly given up on altcoins. It is precisely this exhaustion and loss of faith that creates the momentum for a transformative price increase.
Kevin emphasized that the entire technical scenario can only become a reality if the macro environment allows the market to reprice risk. According to him, the key conditions that need to converge include:
In this context, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have a reasonable basis to shift the policy focus towards supporting the labor market, thereby pulling down the 2-year bond yields and boosting expectations for a rate-cutting cycle. At the same time, the Fed may ease the current level of quantitative tightening (QT), even moving towards a neutral balance sheet state or slight expansion, thereby improving risk appetite in the financial markets.
Kevin believes that the next three weeks will be particularly important as a series of key macro data will be released, guiding policy expectations. In particular, the FOMC meeting on September 17 is seen by him as a milestone that could shape the entire outlook for Q4 – a period he refers to as the "decisive moment" for the rotation of capital into altcoin.
Technical Indicator: Symmetry with 2021
On the weekly time frame, Kevin pointed out that a series of technical signals are simultaneously recreating the familiar picture of 2021 — the starting point for the previous active altcoin season. According to him, this synchronization is not merely coincidental, but may reflect an important transitional phase of the market.
One of the prominent signals from Market Cipher is that this indicator has recorded the start of a new buying cycle. The cash flow shown on this tool is moving along a similar trajectory to the "spring" phase of Wyckoff in the previous cycle, suggesting that buying pressure is returning after a long period of dullness. This is seen as the "first shot" signaling the potential revival of altcoin.
Alongside that, the flow of whale money also shows a notable coincidence: it has just formed a bottom at the level that appeared in 2021. This indicates that large investors may have completed the accumulation phase and are ready to shift the landscape, paving the way for a new growth cycle.
Not stopping there, the MACD on the weekly frame has crossed up at exactly the area that previously signaled the start of a strong uptrend. This is an additional factor reinforcing the argument that the altcoin market is precisely repeating the steps of the previous boom phase.
In particular, the Stochastic RSI has surged to a level of 96. Kevin reiterated that in 2021, once this indicator surpassed the threshold of 80 and maintained above it, altcoins almost immediately entered the phase of the most intense acceleration. If this time the Stochastic RSI continues to approach the threshold of 100, the possibility of a strong breakout similar to that of 2021 is entirely plausible.
Logarithmic Perspective: Long-term Support and Divergence
When observing the monthly logarithmic chart of Total3/BTC, Kevin noted that he sees many important technical signals appearing simultaneously. First, he pointed out the existence of a support range lasting for 8 years in the 0.27–0.24 area. This is a price range that has often acted as a "lifeline" for altcoin, helping the market bounce back after strong correction phases.
Along with that, a long-term downtrend line is gradually encountering a "higher low structure" – a sign that selling pressure has weakened and the market may be establishing a reversal foundation. This crossover is considered a key signal, as it implies a change in the supply-demand equilibrium.
Another important factor comes from the clear bullish divergence on the monthly momentum waves of Market Cipher. Kevin emphasizes: "The momentum lows continue to rise while the price still makes lower lows, which is a typical bullish divergence signal at historical support levels." This indicates that the internal strength of the market is improving, even when the external price action remains weak.
Additionally, he also paid special attention to the RSI indicators. The monthly RSI is showing signs of breaking out of the downtrend channel that has restrained altcoin since 2021. At the same time, the monthly stochastic RSI has sharply bounced back in a V-shape from the area near 0, but has not yet reached the threshold of 80. In Kevin's analysis frame, this is a crucial level: only when it surpasses 80 does the market usually enter the strongest acceleration phase. This means that if this signal is confirmed, altcoin may still have an impressive breakout path ahead.
One of the factors that Kevin particularly emphasizes is the appearance of the double bottom pattern on the monthly L-MACD indicator. According to him, this structure closely aligns with the period from June to December 2020 – the time when the market completed the bottom formation before altcoins entered a strong explosive phase in early 2021. Kevin calls this a "precise bottom pattern", due to the clear repetition between the two cycles.
He pointed out that the lows established in June and July this year are reflecting the double bottom pattern of 2020. This indicates that the altcoin market may have created a solid foundation, while also reinforcing the belief in the argument that a new growth cycle is forming.
What gives Kevin the most confidence is the rare synchronization between the signals on two major analysis frames. He emphasizes that positive signs are currently appearing simultaneously on both the weekly linear chart and the monthly logarithmic chart. This is something that, according to him, "has never happened in history" – because typically, different time frames will provide out-of-phase signals or rarely match perfectly.
If this scenario continues to be confirmed, Kevin believes that the market capitalization of altcoin could quickly regain market share from Bitcoin, at an even stronger and more decisive pace than the previous altcoin season. In other words, he expects this boom to come faster and stronger, thanks to the resonance between the long-term technical foundation and short-term momentum.
Contact with Ethereum and the rotation capability of altcoin
Although mostly focused on analyzing Total3/BTC – the market capitalization index of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, Kevin still closely relates it to previous forecasts about Ethereum. He has repeatedly emphasized that ETH is in the process of establishing a new peak cycle, based on clear bottom signals appearing simultaneously on important trading pairs like ETH/BTC, ETH/USD, and the Ethereum Dominance index.
According to Kevin, the current developments of altcoin share many similarities with the phase in 2020, when Ethereum was the "leader" for the entire market. At that time, ETH broke out early, acting as a catalyst to activate the flow of capital into the altcoin group, before the entire market accelerated simultaneously.
He emphasized that Total3 is currently showing similar signals. Specifically, this index has had two consecutive months of strong rebounds from an important support zone, recreating the pattern that Ethereum once displayed before a major breakout. With this similarity, Kevin believes that the altcoin market is highly likely preparing to enter a cyclical boom phase, with Ethereum continuing to play the role of "pathfinder" as it did in 2020.
Weak September, explosive Q4?
Although many technical signals are reinforcing a positive outlook, Kevin still does not forget to issue an important warning. He reiterates that September is typically a weak period for the cryptocurrency market, when liquidity decreases and investor sentiment becomes more cautious. According to him, strong momentum may really only emerge when macroeconomic data in Q4 provides clearer confirmation.
"Charts can lead news, but nothing is guaranteed," Kevin emphasized. Currently, what he sees is a maturing platform, with a price range being reclaimed after a phase of capitulation, along with the familiar momentum structure that often appears at the boundary between accumulation and explosion.
He concluded confidently yet cautiously: "If there is any time for that to happen, it is now. Pay special attention to Total3."
At the time of writing, the market capitalization of altcoin (TOTAL3) reached 1.04 trillion USD. With an astonishing coincidence of a series of technical signals, combined with the potential for favorable macro factors appearing in Q4, the scenario of a new "altcoin season" is closer than ever.
Lilly