HBAR Forms Bullish Flag as ETF Approval Nears: Key Factors to Watch

Key Insights:

HBAR’s price is forming a bullish flag pattern, suggesting a potential breakout to $0.38.

Elliot Wave analysis indicates HBAR could target $0.40 if the current wave follows the expected pattern.

HBAR’s potential ETF approval could drive institutional interest, but ecosystem challenges pose risks.

Hedera's HBAR price has formed a bullish flag pattern, indicating a potential breakout. The pattern began with a rally from $0.1230 to $0.3055 between June 22nd and July 28th. Since then, HBAR has traded within a descending channel, which is typical for bullish flag formations. If the pattern holds, the coin could target a price of $0.38, based on the flagpole distance.

Further supporting the bullish case is the positioning of HBAR within the second phase of the Elliot Wave cycle. This phase is characterized by a pullback, typically retracing between 50% and 61.8% of the previous wave's distance. If this phase plays out, the next target for HBAR could be its previous high of $0.40, a price level roughly 86% higher than its current value. Additionally, the coin has remained above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has acted as key support.

Double-Bottom Formation and Breakout Pattern Add to Positive Sentiment

HBAR has also formed a double-bottom pattern at the $0.1230 level, often viewed as a reversal signal. The neckline of this pattern is positioned at the May high of $0.2262. The recent break-and-retest of this neckline suggests that a bullish move could follow. Combined with the Elliot Wave analysis, these technical indicators paint a positive outlook for HBAR's future.

Source: TradingView

The upcoming approval of the Canary HBAR ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a key factor driving HBAR’s potential. The decision is expected to attract significant institutional investment, particularly from U.S.-based investors. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) has already recognized the Hedera ETF filing, signaling progress toward approval.

Ecosystem Challenges Pose Risks for Hedera

Despite positive technical indicators, Hedera’s ecosystem growth remains a concern. Its decentralized finance (DeFi) sector continues to underperform, with a total value locked (TVL) of just $220 million. This is a relatively small amount compared to the broader $250 billion DeFi industry. Moreover, Hedera’s decentralized exchanges (DEX) have low trading volumes, and its stablecoin supply has decreased significantly to $86 million, limiting its market influence.

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