Chainlink (LINK) Price Prediction: LINK ETF is Approaching Reality, Why are Holders Continuing to Sell?

In November 2025, the Bitwise Chainlink ETF (code CLNK) officially entered the DTCC clearing system, marking that the first LINK Spot ETF is only one step away from being listed. At the same time, on-chain data shows a contradictory phenomenon: retail holders have continuously reduced their holdings over the past month, while Whale addresses have done the opposite, accumulating over 4 million LINK (worth approximately 64 million USD). This divergence in behavior between institutions and retail investors highlights the time lag in value judgment among different participants in the Crypto Assets market.

Acceleration of ETF Process: Symbolic Significance and Actual Impact of DTCC Listing

The debut of the Bitwise Chainlink ETF in the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) system is a standard process before product launch, indicating that the ETF is technically ready for trading. Although this does not mean that the SEC has given final approval, historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have followed a similar path—DTCC entry usually means that regulatory green lights are about to be lit. It is worth noting that the DTCC itself is an important client of the Chainlink Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), and this business association enhances the product's credibility.

Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov recently attended the Federal Reserve's Financial Technology Conference alongside executives from JPMorgan and Amazon, discussing the integration of global payment systems and digital assets. This recognition at the policy level provides endorsement for institutional allocation, as large asset management companies typically view such signals as key indicators for long-term investment. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart noted: “Chainlink's penetration into the traditional financial system far exceeds that of most cryptocurrencies, and its RWA (Real World Assets) narrative forms a perfect closed loop with ETF products.”

On-chain Data Paradox: The Game Between Retail Investors Selling and Whales Accumulating

According to data from the on-chain analysis platform IntoTheBlock, addresses holding less than 10,000 LINK have net reduced their holdings by 2.3% in the past four weeks, while whale addresses holding more than 100,000 have increased their holdings by 4.1% during the same period. This kind of differentiation is not uncommon in the Crypto Assets market. ClairHawk Capital analysts explain: “Accumulation phases often accompany counterintuitive price behavior, as large funds need to build positions without disturbing the market, while retail investors often exit on the eve of a breakout due to a lack of patience.”

Exchange balance data provides evidence. Arca Research has found that the inventory of LINK on centralized exchanges has fallen to a two-year low, accounting for only 8.7% of the circulating supply. This outflow trend from exchanges is typically seen as a long-term holding signal, as investors transfer assets to cold wallets in anticipation of higher prices. Meanwhile, the on-chain collateral volume has exceeded 450 million LINK, representing 45% of the circulating supply, further reducing the available supply of these locked assets.

Overview of Key Ecosystem Indicators for Chainlink

• Current Price: 15.93 USD (24-hour Change 3%)
• DTCC Code: CLNK (Bitwise Chainlink ETF)
• Whale accumulated: 4 million LINK (approximately 64 million USD)
• Exchange balance: 270 million LINK (two-year low)
• Collateral ratio: 45% (450 million LINK)
• Annual High: 22.5 USD (August 2025)

Chainlink 2.0: The Evolution from Oracle to Cross-Chain Settlement Layer

Chainlink is undergoing a transformation from a single price oracle to a comprehensive cross-chain infrastructure. Its CCIP (Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol) has connected 12 mainstream blockchains, including an experimental integration with the Swift banking messaging system. In the September 2025 upgrade, Chainlink launched the staking v2 version, raising the limit to 75 million LINK, and introduced a dynamic reward mechanism, with an annual yield stabilizing in the range of 4.5-6.2%.

The practical application expansion is particularly remarkable. The American Depositary Receipt (ADR) clearing agency DTCC uses CCIP for cross-border settlement; Citibank employs Chainlink as a data source in its tokenization experiment in Singapore; even the Federal Reserve's FedNow instant payment system is exploring a connection with the Chainlink network. These cases place Chainlink in a unique position in the RWA track, as its token economic model shifts from purely data services to diversified value capture.

Investment Framework: How to Evaluate the Valuation Potential of Chainlink

From a relative valuation perspective, Chainlink's current market value of 9 billion USD occupies 65% of the market share in the oracle track, with premium space compared to competitors Pyth (3 billion USD) and API3 (500 million USD). Traditional valuation models are difficult to apply directly, but comparable company analysis provides a reference—global data service providers such as Bloomberg Terminal have annual revenues of about 12 billion USD, corresponding to a valuation of over 60 billion USD, while Chainlink's network annual fee income is about 320 million USD, indicating significant growth potential.

Technical analysis shows that the LINK price has oscillated in the range of 13-16 USD for 5 months, accumulating momentum close to a breakout edge. If the ETF is approved for listing, based on historical experience from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it may initially bring 500 million to 1 billion USD in new demand, equivalent to 10-20% of the circulating supply. Trader Liu Wei suggests: “A breakout above 18 USD will confirm a new upward trend, with the first target near the previous high of 25 USD, and important support at the 200-day line position of 12.5 USD.”

Typical Market Psychology on the Eve of Institutional Entry

The divergence between the holder sell-off faced by Chainlink and the progress of the ETF is a classic scenario in the institutionalization process of the crypto assets market. When the DTCC system begins to prepare for the LINK ETF, it signifies the transformation of a token from a community asset to a financial instrument. The doubts of retail investors and the firmness of whales reflect different value judgments across time dimensions—the former focuses on price fluctuations in the next quarter, while the latter looks at the ecological value over the next three years. At this historic moment of the integration of traditional finance and the crypto world, this cognitive gap is a manifestation of market efficiency and an opportunity window sought by savvy investors.