Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Non-Farm Payrolls "Invisible", Fed Officials Will Speak Intensively

On November 1, the market was almost certain that the Fed would cut interest rates again in December, but Powell's remarks prompted a reevaluation. This means that as the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and regional Fed presidents resume public appearances, it lays the groundwork for the crucial December meeting, and the speeches by Fed officials starting next week could be vital. Normally, next week would be the week for the release of non-farm payroll data. However, with the U.S. government shutdown entering its second month, the regular schedule will not be achievable. The chances of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releasing non-farm payroll data on Friday are quite slim. Fortunately, there will be a wealth of U.S. private sector data released next week. Specifically, the often-overlooked JOLTS job openings and Challenger layoffs data will receive the attention it deserves. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Tuesday at 01:00, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; Friday at 00:00, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Friday at 01:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak at the New York Economic Club; Friday at 05:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak; Friday at 06:30, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will have a fireside chat on monetary policy; Friday at 16:00, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB monetary market meeting. (Jin10)