The market focuses on how the Fed's meeting minutes will reveal the direction of interest rates.

On November 16, the Financial Times analysis pointed out that the Fed's October policy meeting minutes will be released next Thursday at midnight Beijing time, and at this moment, investors are increasingly uncertain about the U.S. interest rate path. Last month, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, but the hopes of investors expecting Chairman Powell to hint at another rate cut in December were dashed. Before the October meeting, the market had fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but Powell's statement that “further rate cuts by the end of the year are not a foregone conclusion” quickly reshaped market expectations. Boston Fed President Collins raised doubts about a rate cut next month this week, emphasizing that “the threshold for implementing additional easing in the near term is relatively high.” Data shortages will become a major obstacle to the Fed's decision-making. The U.S. government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, ended this week, during which key labor market and inflation data were all halted, making it difficult for investors to assess the true health of the world's largest economy. Morgan Stanley analysts noted in a client report that data shortages and the delayed release of employment market indicators mean that “the Fed will face a dilemma of incomplete information when making decisions at the December meeting.” (Jin10)