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Don't remind me again today

Crypto革命者

2025-11-30 00:30:52

Comparing #数字资产市场观察 with the cycles of 2017, 2021, and 2025, some insights can be gleaned.

Let's start with the conclusion—this round is not a crash at all. A 30-35% pullback after the end of the policy dividend period? That's perfectly normal; profit-taking combined with funds shifting to safe-haven assets is causing the market to make a natural adjustment.

Looking back at history reveals a pattern: every time there is a sudden shift in regulatory attitude, it triggers a final surge of large capital. The wave in 2017, the undercurrents after the ban in 2021, and the loosening of personal holding restrictions in September this year have all played similar roles.

What is truly worth worrying about? The year 2026. It mainly depends on two points: Will the United States actually purchase strategic reserves with real money, and can the Federal Reserve continue to maintain a loose policy? Current judgment? We are still in the latter half of the bull market correction, far from the kind of systemic collapse seen in 2022.

What is the probability of a worst-case scenario where it drops 77% (? I would say less than 20%. A more likely scenario is a rerun of 2018 or 2022, where after a pullback of 50-65%, we wait until 2026-2027 for a revival of the market due to sovereign-level purchasing actions.

What is the essential difference in a three-round bull market?
- 2017 was the "last carnival before the ban"
- 2021 is the "Institutional Bottom Fishing After the Ban"
- 2025 is "The Internal Divisions After Embrace"

The honeymoon period of the policy has just come to an end; systemic risk? It's not that far yet.

The driving force in this round is policy + liquidity, not the retail speculation on air coins, nor the panic from the successive collapses of lending platforms. The 33% pullback is due to profit-taking and capital shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold. Bear market? It's still early. The outcome depends on the real actions of the U.S. Treasury next year.

High probability trend: another drop of 30-50% ) will reach the range of 50,000 to 60,000 USD ( before bottoming out, and a new cycle will begin in 2026-2027. As for the cliff-like crash of 2022? The probability is less than 15%. This round of market hasn't died yet; it's just that the main focus has shifted from "Trump concept" to "gold as a safe haven" stealing the limelight.

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New_Ser_Ngmi

· 12-01 06:19

Here they come again to scare people, every time they say it's going to collapse but it never does.

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AirdropHunterKing

· 11-30 12:01

That said, I’ve calculated this wave of decline, and it’s really not that bad; it mainly involves profitable positions playing people for suckers. In 26 years, will the US really dump money in? That’s the key; otherwise, it’s just another false alarm. The 50,000 to 60,000 dollar range? I think we need to hold this; if it breaks, then it’s a serious issue. Every time there’s policy support, it’s always the same routine; a turn and it’s a cold winter, I’ve seen too much of that. Less than a 20% chance of a 77% fall? I believe it; after all, 2022 wasn’t that harsh, but I think the 50% retracement probability should be adjusted upward. This round is different from before; there aren’t that many retail investors catching a falling knife in scamcoins anymore, and that’s the real change. If national treasury-level purchases really materialize, then that can save the market; just talking without action doesn’t mean anything. Is gold hedging stealing the spotlight? To be honest, I’ve been gradually increasing my gold position for psychological comfort.

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ApeWithAPlan

· 11-30 00:58

You're not wrong; it just depends on whether the U.S. can accept this trap in 2026. Otherwise, we still have to continue to oscillate.

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DaoResearcher

· 11-30 00:53

From the perspective of governance mechanisms, this article's cyclical argument lacks on-chain data support. The vulnerability of token weighted voting in a highly fluctuating market is evident; on what basis does the author confidently assert that the market will reignite in 26-27? According to the incompatible incentive model in the White Paper, the extreme risk probability assessment below 20% itself presents a multiple equilibrium problem. I suggest re-evaluating the assumptions of the economic model, rather than just telling a story. This logical chain is indeed tightly connected. But the problem is—purchasing this variable by the U.S. Treasury is inherently unpredictable; including it in the model is garbage in, garbage out. Why not directly reference the historical failure rate of DAO governance proposals for the derivation? Wait, here the policy and liquidity drivers are discussed separately; what about the perspective of token economics? Without this analysis, the entire framework is incomplete. Reasonable, but I'm afraid we'll have to repeat the 2022 nonsense of "data shows the bull run is still alive."

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zkProofGremlin

· 11-30 00:48

It's nothing serious, just a change of chips. The real show is still in 2026.

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ProbablyNothing

· 11-30 00:44

Well... let's put it this way, 2026 is really a watershed, it depends on how things play out in the U.S. Why are so many people still shouting Bear Market? A 33% pullback is called a crash? Laughable. Those selling scamcoins should have been wiped out long ago, this time it actually purified the market. To be honest, most of the current Holdings are institutions and real investors, not the suckers and dumb buyers anymore. If the Fed really dares to tighten, that would be a real winter. Is 50-60k the bottom? I bet this level will be tested repeatedly. But then again, this round is completely different from the wave in 2021, it feels more stable?

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AllInAlice

· 11-30 00:36

As soon as the policy honeymoon period ends, they start to Be Played for Suckers; this trick has indeed been played out. However, looking at his analysis, the real key is that move in 2026; if the U.S. doesn't have real gold and silver by then, it will all be in vain.

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CountdownToBroke

· 11-30 00:32

Let's see again in 26 years, whatever is said now is pointless.

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