Three Major Reasons for the Weakening of Bullish Expectations for XRP in 2025: Lawsuits, ETF Delays, and Regulatory Uncertainty

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: After rising 290%, sharp drop… 3 Reasons Why XRP Missed Its 2025 Bullish Forecast Original Link: Market experts have analyzed the reasons why XRP failed to achieve its bullish price targets for 2025.

XRP surged 290% between November and December last year, entering 2025 with impressive momentum. This surge sparked optimism across the market, with many analysts predicting XRP would rise throughout the year.

However, as the final month of 2025 approaches, XRP has reversed to a 2.76% annual decline, failing to achieve any of the major targets set at the start of the year. Amid this trend, market analyst Jack Rector outlined three reasons why XRP fell short of bullish expectations this year.

First, prolonged lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)

Rector analyzed that the lengthy legal battle between Ripple and the SEC put the brakes on XRP’s price. Although the SEC withdrew its appeal in March 2025, procedural issues recurred during the detailed settlement process, and the agreement was not finalized until August 22. Ripple paid a $50 million fine and secured exemption provisions for future products offered in the US, but the lawsuit dragged on longer than expected, maintaining market uncertainty.

Second, delay in the launch of XRP spot exchange-traded fund(ETF)

Although the end of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit raised expectations for an ETF launch, a US federal government shutdown delayed the schedule, and it wasn’t until November that the first XRP ETF was listed. Canary Capital listed the XRPC ticker on Nasdaq on November 13, followed by Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton. However, all launched only near the end of the year, and the market response fell short of expectations.

Third, the still pending CLARITY Act(CLARITY Act)

The bill passed the House on July 17, but Senate discussions were delayed due to the shutdown. In early November, the Senate Agriculture Committee unveiled a bipartisan draft to classify digital assets as commodities, driving some market reaction, but the bill failed to reach final processing by year-end. With prediction markets estimating just a 30% chance of passage, the industry continues to call for stronger retail investor protections and tighter custody regulations.

Rector concluded that a combination of the lawsuit, ETF delays, and regulatory uncertainty slowed XRP’s rise, but predicted there is a high chance of achieving targets in 2026.