Although expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to rise, macro data (especially non-farm payroll data) have a significant impact on the timing of policy implementation, and it is possible that the FOMC meeting may delay decisions based on data performance. Currently, BTC is fluctuating at a high level. Regardless of whether the meeting ultimately results in a rate cut, there is a high probability of triggering a bearish market in the short term:

If a rate cut is implemented, it would be a typical case of "good news realized becomes bad news," and short-term correction pressure will be significant. However, in the long run, combined with the policy dividends from the end of the balance sheet reduction cycle, the logic for the market to resume its upward trend remains solid. If the current interest rate is maintained, and expectations for policy easing are not met, BTC may come under direct pressure to move lower, and there is a possibility of testing even lower support levels.