Tonight is destined to be a sleepless night.

A wave of major US data releases is coming in quick succession, and traders are glued to their screens. Kicking things off at 20:30 is the November corporate layoff data, followed closely at 21:30 by the unemployment claims (the market is betting on 220,000), and the grand finale at 23:00 is the supply chain pressure index and factory orders.

These numbers are no joke.

How obsessed is the market with a December rate cut? Over at Polymarket, they're pricing in a 94% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut—basically just waiting for the official announcement. With this sentiment in play, the dollar has been weak, risk assets are raring to go, and the entire market feels electrified.

But then again, is it really that much of a sure thing?

Unless tonight’s data delivers a major surprise—like a sudden blowout in employment—the rate cut expectation is likely unshakable. But what the market fears most is the “what if.” History tells us that the more one-sided the consensus, the more likely there’s a trap ahead.

The choice right now is pretty tough: keep charging ahead with the rate cut expectations, or start hedging your bets early? After all, “buy the rumor, sell the news” is something we’ve seen time and again in the trading world. Will tonight’s data add more fuel to the rally, or flip the switch on market sentiment?

We’ll find out in a few hours.