#美联储重启降息步伐 Less than 48 hours remain until the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting (9th–10th), and the latest market data shows the probability of a rate cut has climbed to 93%. What does this number mean? Almost the entire market is betting that liquidity will be released soon, with only a very small minority still wagering on the status quo.

Why is this round of expectations so unusual?

Wall Street’s sentiment has completely shifted. Traditional investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently turned bullish, and institutional funds have already started quietly positioning themselves. More critically, if this rate cut happens as expected, it will be the third one this year—thoroughly opening the door to an easing cycle. As the dollar weakens, the crypto market will be a direct beneficiary.

How should you position now?

Let’s start with the basic allocation. The two mainstream coins, $BTC and $ETH , must be prioritized. The first wave of institutional inflows always hits here; only after they establish a solid base can other smaller tokens shine.

As for choosing sectors among altcoins, the capital spillover effect is bound to come sooner or later. Focus on two narratives closely tied to macro liquidity:

First is RWA (Real World Asset tokenization). The essence of a rate cut is to lower capital costs, making it easier for traditional financial money to flow into emerging areas like on-chain assets. $LINK and $ONDO are leading projects in this sector and worth watching closely.

Second is the AI sector. High-growth sectors tend to receive higher valuation premiums in a loose liquidity environment, and once market sentiment heats up, there’s even more room for speculation. $TAO and $FET are representative assets in this narrative.

But one thing must be noted: although the outlook is highly favorable, beware of an instant pullback once the bullish news is realized. If you’re trading with leverage, don’t go overnight with high multiples—be careful not to get liquidated.

The core logic right now is simple: it’s not about who reacts the fastest, but who can hold on the longest. In the face of major trends, holding core assets and waiting for them to pay off is the right way to go.