Unexpected news broke on December 2: the team of a certain sitting president suddenly called off the final interview for the previously scheduled Federal Reserve Chair candidate. But this seemingly abrupt cancellation had early signs—at a cabinet meeting the day before, someone revealed that the candidate list had been "narrowed down to one."

All clues point to the same name: current director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett.

What are the odds given by the market? Over 80%. Someone at the meeting even half-jokingly said, "That potential candidate is here today, which deserves a lot of respect." With comments like that, the answer is almost out in the open.

Looking back at the entire selection process: from the original longlist of 11 candidates, down to a shortlist of 5, and now just one remains. Sixty-three-year-old Hassett has been the frontrunner since summer, maintaining his lead throughout. He isn’t a new face—he served as Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in 2017 and returned to the inner circle this January to head the National Economic Council.

But what’s more intriguing is his shift in stance. Once an economist who emphasized the Fed’s independence, Hassett has recently been a frequent critic of current Chair Powell’s policies. He has publicly voiced support for rate cuts and even stated that “the harm from high interest rates far outweighs inflation itself,” suggesting that he would immediately adjust policy direction if appointed.

After the news broke, the market reacted instantly: long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell in response. CME’s “FedWatch” tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has surged to 87.6%, and the likelihood of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut by next January is approaching 30%.

Wall Street’s logic is clear: this candidate has the credibility of the financial markets and meets the leadership’s expectations for loyalty. What will global markets do next? How will rate cut expectations be transmitted to various asset classes? It’s worth keeping an eye on.