Cathie Wood, head of ARK Invest, recently shared an interesting observation—she says the US economy has actually been struggling through a "rolling recession" over the past three years, but now the situation is starting to change.

So what is a rolling recession? It means different industries take turns getting hit—just as one breathes a little easier, another one collapses. However, Wood believes several forces are now converging: interest rates are starting to ease, market liquidity is returning, and companies are putting real money into technological upgrades. When you look at these signals together, it seems like a new cycle is brewing.

She is especially optimistic about 2026. Why not next year? Because policy transmission takes time. The Fed’s tone has already softened, and a rate cut in December is basically a done deal, but the effects of easing need time to filter through—starting to spread in 2025, with real momentum likely kicking in by 2026. Fiscal policy is also moving towards easing, and with both engines running, liquidity will pick up.

Some people worry that rate cuts could reignite inflation. Wood doesn’t see it that way. Her logic is: if rate cuts are accompanied by a significant productivity boost, the money will flow into innovation and investment, not speculation. As productivity rises, costs naturally come down, and inflation is offset by technological progress.

The key is the productivity variable. Wood notes that the tech cluster effect is kicking in—AI, automation, and new energy aren’t working in isolation anymore, but are starting to catalyze each other. Once this combo really gets going, the resilience of economic growth will be on a whole new level.

So her view is: over the next two years, the combination of low interest rates and high productivity will slowly ferment, and 2026 could be a turning point. She ended on an optimistic note—hoping everyone can look forward to a "very pleasant 2026."

Of course, this is the institutional perspective. Whether the market actually follows the script will depend on real data and how policies are implemented. But at least from a macro logic perspective, this narrative is pretty interesting.