#美联储重启降息步伐 The final key FOMC meeting of the Fed in 2025 is about to be held on December 9-10. This decision will directly shake up the stock and bond markets, and the reaction from the cryptocurrency market will be even more intense. Simply put, this meeting will set the tone for the market at the start of 2026, and everyone is guessing whether there will be a rate cut or if things will remain unchanged.

Here’s the meeting process: internal discussions will take place on December 9, but the real action is on December 10. At 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, the policy statement will be released; at 2:30 p.m., Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference—every word he says could move the markets. The meeting minutes won’t be released until January 8, 2026, but investors are already poring over details like employment data, inflation trends, and economic growth.

What’s the current market consensus? There’s an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, meaning the federal funds rate would be lowered from the 3.75%-4.00% range to 3.50%-3.75%. If this comes true, it will be the second wave of easing after the rate cut in October. However, there are dissenting voices within the committee because inflation data is somewhat mixed and GDP growth is still robust, so some advocate for a more cautious approach.

Another key detail: the official confirmation of ending quantitative tightening on December 1, which means the monthly reduction of $9.5 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities will stop. In other words, market liquidity will be loosened. Once the new dot plot and economic projections are released, traders will be able to sense the strength of the easing policy in 2026. If inflation continues to fall, there could even be another 50 basis point rate cut.

How big is the market impact? Currency traders will immediately adjust their positions, and stock and bond markets will react instantly. The crypto market is especially sensitive. If the 25 basis point rate cut is implemented, funds will flow into risk assets, and $BTC could surge to the $95,000-$100,000 range, with $ETH and Solana likely to rally as well. Conversely, if the Fed takes a hawkish stance and pauses rate cuts, Bitcoin could drop back to $87,000-$90,000, and altcoins would come under pressure as traders adjust their leveraged positions.

On the day of the meeting, volatility could rise by 20%-30%, and the entire market trend may be dictated by Powell’s remarks, with this effect likely lasting through early 2026.