Yesterday, I went to the bank to handle some affairs, and I saw people in line to withdraw money with a hint of caution on their faces. This reminded me of the current $ETH market. ETH climbed to $2,286.45 today, up 1.25%, like a cautious climber testing each step on the rocks below. It reached a high of $2,295, then retreated again, as if taking a quick glance at the scenery from the mountain top before rushing back to safety. The most interesting thing is that the Fear and Greed Index is only 26, which is like those people waiting in line at the bank — clearly nothing major happening, but feeling uneasy inside. People in the market now have this mindset: holding ETH, wanting to buy but not daring, wanting to sell but reluctant. Today's trading volume is 308 million USDT, which is quite normal, like the usual flow of people on a regular day — not particularly hot, nor so cold that it causes concern. The fluctuation range is only 2.19%, and ETH now feels like a steady middle-aged person — not overly joyful or sorrowful, but quietly accumulating strength. Honestly, this small rise under the "fear" state actually makes it a bit interesting. It's like those people hesitating outside the bank, unsure whether to go in — there are no tigers inside, just themselves scaring themselves.

#eth Ambush at 2 a.m. on the news side, perfectly grasping the long positions around 2220, and the long positions around 748 for Bitcoin. The fluctuations are not significant. A single order was held for two days. The news side has played out, and the market is warming up again. Continue to monitor important levels!!

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin drops to 70k: Is this the start of a crash or the beginning of a bottom-fishing opportunity? Bitcoin & Ethereum: 20 days of "free fall" Bitcoin (BTC) high point on January 15: 97k; current low: around 70k; 20-day decline of about 27% The key is that during these 20 days, there was almost no decent rebound, just a continuous decline Ethereum (ETH) high point on January 15: 3,300; current low: around 2,000; 20-day decline over 39% If you think "this is exaggerated," let's review some past history. After 2022, cases where Bitcoin declined over 25% in 20 days Since 2022, several typical cases where Bitcoin dropped more than 25% in the short term: 1️⃣ November 11, 2025 10.7w → 8.06w, 10 days, down 25% 2️⃣ July 29, 2024 7w → 4.9w, 6 days, down 30% 3️⃣ November 6, 2022 2.1w → 1.5w, 4 days, down 28% 4️⃣ June 7, 2022 3.1w → 1.7w, 12 days, down 45% 5️⃣ May 5, 2022 4w → 2.6w, 8 days, down 35% 6️⃣ November 10, 2021 6.7w → 4.2w, 24 days, down 37% If you look carefully, you'll find that: out of these 6 cases, 4 occurred during the 2022 bear market, and the November 10, 2021 event was the start of the bear market crash. After a sharp decline, will there be a "V-shaped" rebound? In these situations where the decline exceeds 25% in a short period, is there a large rebound afterward? The answer may disappoint many: almost none. In these cases, the most common trend after a sharp drop is only one thing—sideways consolidation, digesting the chips! It won't directly push to new highs. So, in summary: when a "bear market" is confirmed, the first rebound is often a window to exit, not a signal to buy the dip. This wave isn't really sudden; will there be new lows? That's the most concerned question. 1️⃣ Short-term: breaking lower again is not easy Currently, the Fear & Greed Index Compared to before: December 16: 10 November 16: 9 So, the current 10 is already a very low value, and the 70,000 price level is a critical threshold—short-term, it may be difficult to break below! 2️⃣ ETF: No signs of panic outflows Since January 16, Bitcoin ETF outflows haven't been extreme: January 16: -390 million January 20: -470 million January 21: -580 million January 30: -500 million Most other times, small outflows around 100 million. And in the past two days—outflows have significantly slowed. Looking at overall inflow and outflow: From October 2024 to May 2025, ETF inflows were highly concentrated, while Bitcoin prices mainly ranged between 60,000 and 100,000. What does this mean? Bitcoin around 70,000 is already below the ETF's average holding cost range. If it continues to fall below 70,000, the price you buy at could be even lower than the cost basis of the first wave of institutions rushing into ETFs, since Bitcoin has already reached $60,000 since March 2024! 3️⃣ Long-term: entering the "value zone" From a longer cycle perspective: Bitcoin's monthly chart has experienced five consecutive down months, a rare occurrence—never seen with more than four consecutive months of decline. Looking at Bollinger Bands: in the last bear market, the monthly Bollinger lower band was touched, indicating a phase bottom. Currently, the monthly Bollinger lower band is at 56,000, meaning 56,000 is a theoretical limit, not necessarily to be reached. From 124,000 to 56,000: a decline of about 54%, while the maximum decline in the last cycle was 76%, and each bear market's maximum retracement has been converging. Multiple indicators give the same answer: AHR999 = 0.37, below 0.45 for only 570 days; above 0.45 for 4,913 days—less than 10% of the time. The current price is approaching or even below the shutdown cost of mainstream mining rigs. The final conclusion: this is no longer an emotional gambling zone but a value investment zone. It's not about going all-in or bottom-fishing, but about starting to dollar-cost average, rational, long-term positioning. Will the market give you even lower prices? It's possible. But from the perspectives of history, costs, and indicators, this range is already worth slowly loading your bullets into the chamber.