Today’s DOGE breakdown. There are two pitfalls in this position: chasing the hype and fear of missing out. What’s valuable is the trading volume and structure behind the sentiment. Overall environment: BTC/ETH are both falling, popular coins tend to rise first and then crash. DOGE: +4%, trading volume 315 million, volatility 10.94%. The hype is real, but the strength of the move depends on the volume. Driving factors: retail investors returning to old-school memes. Whether it can sustain depends on whether funds continue to buy in. Conditions for growth: increased volume + pullback with support + hype not overextended. Invalidation conditions: sharp rise with decreasing volume + pullback with no buyers. One risk note: it’s not that it won’t rise, but that everyone has already accepted that it can only go up.

$BTC $ETH Yesterday, the overall market sentiment continued to stay in decline and kept sliding lower. In the early morning, BTC briefly dipped to 7.48万, while ETH also dropped to around 2218. And now, with the continued selloff, the bears are definitely in control. The main trend is certainly bearish—however, when it comes to where things will bottom out, as I said earlier, my personal expectation is still to look for it around the level mentioned before!

Reviewing the early trading session, Bitcoin, after the Fed's interest rate decision was bearish, experienced a phased correction in the early hours, with a rebound testing the previous high resistance. Overall, it was again pressured down to around 76,500, forming a certain economic transition, allowing the bears to increase volume and retest. Currently, the market's lowest retest was near 75,300, which faced resistance and rebounded. The current coin price remains oscillating around 75,700. Ethereum's movement is basically consistent with Bitcoin, with a second rebound testing the 2,280 level and then falling back. It also shows signs of forming a top and bottom. The midday lowest retest was around 2,230, which faced resistance, but the bullish rebound is still in a shrinking volume stage. The future trend remains bearish. Our early morning short positions were also taken advantage of with a retest and exit, gaining 700 points on Bitcoin and 30 points on Ethereum. The bearish outlook was mentioned in the morning live broadcast and limit order posts. Short-term short positions are still straightforward, and the market's future will continue to focus on the breakout. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the short-term key support at the 120-day moving average has not been substantially broken, but the bottom is continuously probing with spikes. There is still some momentum for a breakout in the future. The intra-day rebound again recovered and formed a certain top-bottom conversion around 76,500. The bears clearly dominate, and the Bollinger Bands are gradually adjusting downward after the holiday, indicating a downward trend. Overall, the market is dominated by bears. The indicators still show no signs of oversold conditions, and there is no significant bullish volume structure with many turnarounds. The moving averages still show a bearish arrangement. In future operations, patience is advised; wait for volume to increase in the bearish direction. Bitcoin can be shorted in the 76,000-76,500 range, with targets at 75,000-74,000. Ethereum can be shorted in the 2,250-2,280 range, with a target at 2,200. #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 $BTC $ETH