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在七月,没有降息的可能性,加上如此强劲的非农数据,美国最近开始研究对其盟友的关税。昨天,对日本和韩国征收了25%的关税,关税的讨论也影响了市场的下跌。我认为最近的市场情况可能会复制去年的趋势,七月和八月的波动和调整倾向于阴跌。市场对九月降息的预期与去年类似,直接降息50基点。十月通常是暴涨的月份。2023年和2024年十月都出现了暴涨。今年也应该不会例外。到那时,美国将实施放水,我们也会如此。大A股在下半年也应该上涨。