From 2015 to 2025, the performance of returns and risks of five mainstream assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, US stocks (represented by the S&P 500), and US bonds varied significantly over this decade. Below is a detailed analysis:
- Regarding earnings:
- Bitcoin: If you invest $10,000 in 2015, it will grow 402 times by August 2025, reaching $4,020,000.
- Ethereum: During the same period, the increase in Ethereum was even more astonishing, reaching 1195 times, turning $10,000 into $11,950,000.
- Gold: Gold has tripled in the past decade, turning $10,000 into $30,000.
- US Stocks (S&P 500): The S&P 500 index grew by 2.97 times, increasing $10,000 to $29,700.
- US Treasury Bonds: The yield on US Treasury bonds is relatively low, only growing by 1.26 times over ten years, turning $10,000 into $12,600.
- Risk aspects:
- Bitcoin: The annualized standard deviation is between 70% and 90%, with significant price volatility, and the maximum drawdown has exceeded 80%.
- Ethereum: Its risk level is similar to Bitcoin, and the volatility is also very severe, having experienced significant corrections.
- Gold: The maximum drawdown of gold is 29%, relatively stable, and has a certain level of risk resistance.
- US Stocks (S&P 500): The annualized standard deviation of the S&P 500 is between 15% and 20%, and it experienced a significant drop of 34% during the pandemic in 2020.
- US Treasuries: The maximum drawdown for US Treasuries is 23%, which is relatively stable, but its price has also been impacted to some extent during the interest rate hike cycle after 2020.
Overall, Bitcoin and Ethereum have the most insane returns, but the risks are extremely high; the S&P 500 serves as a stable foundation for long-term allocation, with relatively steady returns and moderate risks; gold mainly plays a defensive role, providing a certain level of shelter during market panic; U.S. Treasuries have good liquidity, but their returns lag behind and face certain risks during the interest rate hike cycle.