Arthur Hayes Crypto Cycle: Mid-Stage Rally with DAT Crash Risks Ahead

Arthur Hayes' crypto cycle analysis, from a September 13, 2025, interview, places the market in mid-stage, driven by Trump's policies and liquidity expansion, with Bitcoin poised for gains despite a potential DAT collapse like FTX. Hayes forecasts aggressive Fed cuts but warns of sticky inflation and $10 trillion stablecoin absorption. In a $3.5 trillion cryptocurrency market, this Arthur Hayes crypto cycle view emphasizes hard assets amid global shifts. This article covers Hayes' insights on the Arthur Hayes crypto cycle, Fed actions, stablecoins, DAT risks, and outlook.

Economic Cycle Mid-Stage

The Arthur Hayes crypto cycle is in its mid-stage, fueled by populist measures like COVID stimulus and 2017 tax cuts, adding $4–5 trillion in credit. Hayes sees continued expansion via mortgages and sovereign funds, benefiting Bitcoin's fixed supply. This Arthur Hayes crypto cycle contrasts 2021's liquidity shocks, predicting a slower, policy-driven rally. He notes: "The number of cuts doesn't matter. Bessent and Trump need to issue more money."

• Credit boost: $4–5 trillion.
• Bitcoin role: Liquidity beneficiary.
• Quote: Money issuance priority.

Fed Policy Predictions

Hayes predicted a 50 basis point cut in the September meeting, influenced by NFP revisions and low PPI, but the Fed opted for 25 basis points. He views easing as risk management, with 2-year Treasury yields dropping 50–60 basis points. In the Arthur Hayes crypto cycle, this supports borrowing but warns of inflation persistence for 18–24 months. Hayes states: "If I lower the cost of funds, they can borrow more."

• Predicted: 50 bp cut.
• Actual: 25 bp.
• Yields: 50–60 bp drop.

Stablecoin Absorption and DeFi Growth

Stablecoins will absorb up to $10 trillion in the Arthur Hayes crypto cycle, backed by U.S. government via T-bills, marginalizing the Fed's rate role. Hayes sees Tether and Circle dominating, boosting DeFi like Ethena and Hyperliquid. This Arthur Hayes crypto cycle envisions stablecoins as dollarization tools, enabling global access.

• Absorption: $10 trillion potential.
• Dominance: Tether, Circle.
• DeFi boost: Protocols like Ethena.

DAT Crash Risks

Hayes warns of an FTX-like DAT crash at the Arthur Hayes crypto cycle bottom, due to aggressive engineering. Examples include MicroStrategy (Bitcoin), Bitmine (Ethereum), and Upexi (Solana), with only one winner per class. He predicts devaluations, creating arbitrage. Hayes notes: "I judge this cycle's bottom will see a large DAT accident."

• Crash: FTX-style at bottom.
• Winners: One per asset class.
• Quote: DAT accident prediction.

Final Outlook

The Arthur Hayes crypto cycle forecasts Bitcoin to $150K–$200K by decade's end amid multipolarity and printing. Hold hard assets like gold and BTC against sticky inflation. In a $3.5 trillion market, focus on liquidity mechanisms for opportunities.

Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes' crypto cycle analysis sees mid-stage growth with DAT risks and $10T stablecoin flows. In a $3.5 trillion market, prioritize BTC and monitor Fed easing for signals. Diversify holdings for cycle resilience.